Please take a moment and do what you have been meaning to do: Finally become a voluntary paying subscriber to support my work:
If you want to help support my work but don’t want to become a formal subscriber, you can kick in using one of the following methods:
* Buy me a cocktail (at Kiev prices….), tax and server tip included, by clicking here.
* Buy me a cup of coffee (or a week’s worth) by clicking here.
* Check. send a simple email to markhalperintalk@gmail.com and ask where you can send a check.
• PayPal. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com
• Venmo. Mark-Halperin-4 (telephone number ends in x3226)
• Zelle. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com
Wide World of News has no ads, sponsors, investors, staff, or corporate backers.
It’s just me here.
Thank you for your support.
Mark
****
In one of the great metaphors in the history of American politics, the wicked smaaat Democratic strategist David Plouffe speaks of a candidate’s or officeholder’s “time in the barrel.”
“Time in the barrel” is when some development – usually unexpected and sometimes unfair – produces a skein of tough news cycles and a test of mettle and resourcefulness.
Time in the barrel can last a day, a week, a month, or a whole lot longer.
The person in the barrel is careening downhill fast, shaken, stirred, rocked, rolled, and disoriented, unable to slow the thing down or do very much to even consider escaping.
Barrel rides end either with some Houdini maneuver, when the spherical wooden structure comes to a crashing halt, or when the media, political opponents, and the public decide to pull an occupant out (typically owing to boredom or changed circumstances) and shove someone else in whose time or reckoning has come.
Bill Clinton spent much of 1992 in the barrel – but he was so naturally skilled at surviving in there that he could eat a bucket of Doe’s tamales while hurtling downward and never spill a single drop. George W. Bush went all Texas indignant when he was encased, whether his time was short-lived (his 2000 confrontation with an old DUI) or seemingly endless (the Iraq War). His dad had a major run in the barrel over Iran-Contra. Barack Obama’s barrel time in the Reverend Wright period was fast and furious — as he fought his way out with a speech both thoughtful and tactically brilliant. Hillary Clinton and Vice President Harris basically live in the barrel full time, and you can decide for yourself why that is.
So far, no one has built a barrel big enough to hold Donald Trump for long, but dinner with a white supremacist put at least part of Trump’s anatomy in there last year.
Joe Biden had a bit of barrel time over classified documents, but because he rarely talks to the press and because the Dominant Media sees him as their Trump Protector, he is rarely in the barrel. He and Jill think he is consigned there, however.
Here are three current leading political figures and their relationships to Ye Olde Barrel:
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY
Was issued a “Stay out of barrel free” card at the start of the war. No one, not even Putin, can put him there while hostilities continue.
PETE BUTTIGIEG
Welcome to the barrel, Mr. Secretary. He actually had a spell in there during his presidential campaign, when issues of race and South Bend came to the foreground, but what he is dealing with now is perhaps the most intense time of his national career. Did Thursday fix it? Only time will tell; the right won’t let up.
RON DESANTIS
What actually got me thinking about Plouffe’s famous metaphor was the remarkable trajectory of DeSantis’ rise, and the reasons for it. I would argue that the Sunshine State topper actually has not had any time in the barrel in over two years – and the reasons for that actually explain as much about his political success as anything else.
****
However, DeSantis’ recent “Fox and Friends” comments on Ukraine could, could be heading him towards the barrel.
Both Kim Strassel and David Brooks noted what he said, and both write essentially today about the deeper meaning.
Strassel thinks DeSantis should reject Trump’s America First view of the war and go full-on neo-con/Reagan:
Peace through strength does [work], and there’s a huge political opening for the candidate willing to take it. Criticize Mr. Biden for the foreign-policy weakness that emboldened Mr. Putin to invade in the first place, and for his dawdling on getting Ukraine real firepower. Describe what Ukrainian victory would look like and note that under a more decisive GOP presidency Ukraine would have already claimed it. Project a future in which a victorious and united Europe stands alongside America to face the growing China threat. Criticize Mr. Trump for his retreatism and remind the country that a strong America (with a rebuilt military) is the best guard against global disorder and the basis of U.S. safety.
National security remains a top voter priority; primary-goers want to know presidential aspirants have a coherent foreign-policy vision. Mr. Trump’s position poses the GOP field’s first test. Let’s see who passes.
David Brooks thinks it is too late, that DeSantis has cast his lot in a way that will damage him:
As the campaign wears on, and the debate on Ukraine continues, DeSantis will be condemned to playing Mini-Me to Trump in trying to win that populist 40 percent. Meanwhile, he’ll be cutting ties to many in the nonpopulist 41 percent. That will leave room for some normie Republican in the Brian Kemp/Tim Scott mold to rise.
HALPERIN SAYS: The micro focus on the Ukraine comments is useful in understanding DeSantis and his chances of becoming president, but the larger issues related to a potential arrogance leading to winging it on complex issues matter more long term. George W. Bush did extensive policy tutorials in Austin with leading experts headed towards his presidential run. Does Ron DeSantis feel he needs no such thing? if so, barrel time likely lurks…..
****
UKRAINE ONE YEAR LATER: THE ESSENTIAL READS
*
* The Biden administration is going all out on this dark anniversary, with several early morning releases, including this one:
One year ago, Russia launched its brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The United States has rallied the world in response, working with our allies and partners to provide Ukraine with critical security, economic, and humanitarian assistance and leading unprecedented efforts to impose costs on Russia for its aggression. This week, President Biden visited Kyiv, Ukraine and Warsaw, Poland to send a clear and powerful message that the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.
Today, on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the United States is announcing a series of additional actions to continue providing Ukraine with the support it needs and holding Russia accountable for its war of aggression. A more comprehensive list of actions the U.S. has taken over the past year in response to Russia’s invasion is available HERE.
* The centerpiece of the president’s day:
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen directly confronted senior Russian officials during a meeting of finance ministers of the Group of 20 nations on Friday, calling it a “moral imperative” to end the war in Ukraine.
Her condemnation of the war was a rare direct interaction between American and Russian officials and occurred on the anniversary of a conflict that has divided the world and roiled the global economy. The United States has pledged to deliver more aid to Ukraine and to level more sanctions on Russia.
“I urge the Russian officials here at the G20 to understand that their continued work for the Kremlin makes them complicit in Putin’s atrocities,” Ms. Yellen said in a private session, according to remarks that were shared by a Treasury Department official. “They bear responsibility for the lives and livelihoods being taken in Ukraine and the harm caused globally.”
The comments were made during a session about “international financial architecture” that took place on the first day of a two-day gathering of top economic policymakers in Bengaluru. Senior Russian economic officials were in attendance, according to a Treasury official….
The Pentagon announced a new package of long-term security assistance for Ukraine on Friday, marking the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion with a $2 billion commitment to send more rounds of ammunition and a variety of small, high-tech drones into the fight….
In a statement Friday, the Pentagon said the aid includes weapons to counter Russia’s unmanned systems and several types of drones, including the upgraded Switchblade 600 Kamikaze drone, as well as electronic warfare detection equipment.
It also includes money for additional ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), artillery rounds and munitions for laser-guided rocket systems. But, in an unusual move, the Pentagon provided no details on how many rounds of any kind will be bought. Including this latest package, the U.S. has now committed more than $32 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.
* AFP:
China called Friday for urgent peace talks as it released its plan to end the war in Ukraine, but Western powers quickly rebuffed the proposals while warning against Beijing's closening ties to Moscow.
The 12-point paper calling for a "political settlement" of the crisis follows accusations from the West that China is considering arming Russia, a claim Beijing has dismissed as false.
Timed to coincide with the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the paper calls for all parties to "support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible.”
* Do not skip Josh Rogin’s column, in which he says there is a fundamental split between the Biden-NATO talk of supporting the war as long as it takes – and a Ukrainian desire to go big and win this year:
By providing Ukraine with just enough weaponry to fight to a medium-boil stalemate, the Biden approach is seen by many Ukrainians as an intentional strategy to nudge Ukraine toward negotiations. Ukrainian officials maintain that talks are possible only when Putin feels more pressure.
The first thing you will hear from any Ukrainian is “Thank you.” Ukrainians are not ungrateful or greedy — they are trying to survive. But their desperation is increasing. “As long as it takes” must not become an excuse for a lack of urgency. By next year’s anniversary, there might not be a Ukraine to save.
* The New York Times on the the Biden-Zelensky buddy flick:
After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, President Biden reflected privately on his long-distance conversations with President Volodymyr Zelensky. He did not know the man well — and might never get to. It was chilling, several people remember him observing grimly, to think that he might be talking with a dead man.
Mr. Biden was hardly the only one to assume that Mr. Zelensky might not survive the Russian onslaught, given the target the Kremlin had put on his back. But the American president was happy to be proved wrong — and surprised to discover, like the rest of the world, that Mr. Zelensky was more than a former comedian and tougher than anyone imagined.
By the time Mr. Biden made a dramatic unannounced visit to wartime Kyiv this week, the two had grown close enough to greet each other with the easy familiarity of old friends. “How are the children?” Mr. Biden asked. “It’s amazing to see you,” he added, perhaps still shocked that the Ukrainian president has escaped Russian efforts to kill him. Mr. Zelensky inquired about Jill Biden. “She’s doing well,” the president replied. “She’s still teaching.”
HALPERIN SAYS: Read Rogin.
****
THE OTHER LOOMING WAR
*
The U.S. is markedly increasing the number of troops deployed to Taiwan, more than quadrupling the current number to bolster a training program for the island’s military amid a rising threat from China.
The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials. The larger force will expand a training program the Pentagon has taken pains not to publicize as the U.S. works to provide Taipei with the capabilities it needs to defend itself without provoking Beijing.
North Korea launched four cruise missiles, flying in figure-eight patterns and landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan as military exercises raise tensions in the region.
North Korea fired four Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missiles from the North Hamgyong province, a northeastern region of North Korea, to demonstrate its nuclear counterattack capability, Pyongyang’s state media said on Friday.
The cruise missiles, which North Korea launched on Thursday, aren’t covered by United Nations Security Council resolutions that ban Pyongyang’s weapons activity, and they are typically considered part of regular military exercises rather than provocations.
The launches, nonetheless, come amid stepped up military activity in the region. On Wednesday, the U.S., South Korea and Japan conducted missile defense exercises, days after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile. The allies practiced real-time information sharing on detecting, tracking and intercepting ballistic missiles, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
HALPERIN SAYS: Team Biden-Blinken-Sullivan always has an eye on Xi, but the Pacific could go from Cold to Hot in a Tokyo/Seoul/Taipei Minute. All the U.S. ambassadors in the region are poised for esclalation.
****
OTHER ESSENTIAL READS
* The Washington Post with lots of new reporting on how the White House is approaching saving Social Security, in a piece that exposes the political and economic underbelly of the likely decision to do nothing in 2023 (and, thus, probably nothing in 2024).
HALPERIN SAYS: I nominate this bit for “Most Cynical Quote of 2023”:
“There’s a faction inside the White House that feels some need to offer a plan, though I personally feel that’s misplaced,” one senior Democratic pollster said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations with senior administration officials. “Stick to our basic message: Hands off our seniors. That’s working.”
* The Associated Press with a fun one:
It’s early yet, but next year’s presidential race may feature something the political world hasn’t seen in the last 50 years: no Texans.
The Texas-size hole in the field will be on stark display Friday at a closed Republican donor event outside the state capital, Austin, featuring the likes of former Vice President Mike Pence, who is expected to mount a campaign, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who announced her bid last week.
Some Texans could still run. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott won’t decide until after Memorial Day. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who ran in 2016, says he’s focused for now on reelection next year. Will Hurd, a onetime CIA agent and former Republican congressman from San Antonio, is seriously considering a bid and may bring on staff, aides say.
If none of them seeks the White House, it’d be the first time since 1972 without at least one major candidate who rose to public prominence in Texas or lived in the state while running for or holding office.