TEN QUESTIONS TO STOP ASKING...
Many of you have asked what the reader reaction was like to Thursday’s edition of the Wide World of News about the Dominant Media’s liberal bias.
There was a flood of incoming, much more positive than negative (even from Blue folks), and/but here are two reader emails, representing the polar ends:
Reader #1: Best column ever! Thx for pointing out the bias.
Reader #2: I find your turn , slight as it might be, to the extreme Right unsettling. My yearly contribution is wavering at this point….
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TEN THINGS YOU CAN STOP ASKING ME (BECAUSE THE ANSWERS ARE OBVIOUS)
1. If Joe Biden is going to kick Kamala Harris off the ticket. (no)
2. If Gavin Newsom is going to challenge Joe Biden for the nomination. (no)
3. If Joe Biden and Donald Trump want to run against each other. (yes)
4. If Donald Trump will pick Ron DeSantis or Kari Lake as his running mate. (no)
5. If the best oppo files on Ron DeSantis’ “background” belong to the DNC, Team Trump, or Disney. (Disney)
6. If the Carolina Panthers will get their money’s worth from Bryce Young. (they will/Roll Tide)
7. What will happen if Trump is convicted of a felony before Iowa or before Election Day. (he won’t be; the wheels of justice grind slowly)
8. If Mitch McConnell will play a big role in the endgame over the debt ceiling. (of course)
9. If the Celtics will win the NBA title this year. (mortal lock)
10. If it’s too soon for Josh Shapiro to run for and win the presidency in 2024 if that becomes necessary for his party and his nation. (it is not)
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TEN THINGS YOU SHOULD KEEP ASKING ME (BECAUSE THE ANSWERS ARE FAR FROM OBVIOUS)
1. When will the debt ceiling/budget negotiations begin and what will be the shape and size of the table – will it be a two-way, three-way, four-way, or five-way give-and-take?
No one knows.
In the aftermath of the vote, Biden allies and advisers privately acknowledged that there’s no clear endgame to the debt ceiling standoff — and that McCarthy’s victory makes it more difficult to convince moderate Republicans to back a clean debt ceiling increase for fear of economic disaster….
[T]there is recognition that the bill’s passage means Biden’s “show us your plan” dismissals will no longer cut it. Aides downplayed the idea that a meeting with Biden represents a direct reward for passing his bill, and stressed that any sitdown would include other congressional leaders.
Biden is also unlikely to meet with Republicans on the issue until May at the earliest, with the House leaving Friday for recess until May 8. (McCarthy allies, though, had said he’s willing to fly back to D.C. for such an occasion.)
Mr. Biden and his aides now must choose how quickly to engage with Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California — along with Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, the majority leader; Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader; and Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House minority leader — and on what terms.
We do know that the Associated Press has uncharacteristically declared a near-term winner:
What has become apparent, though, is that Biden’s refusal to negotiate may not be a tenable position for the White House as the deadline nears for action. While the White House is taking the long view, preparing to slam the Republicans for what Biden calls “wacko” ideas that will harm Americans, at some point the president, and the Democratic-led Senate, will need to respond to the House.
The New York Times agrees Team McCarthy is ahead after the first quarter:
This week’s vote by House Republicans to couple deep spending cuts with an agreement to raise the debt limit for one year has put President Biden on the defensive, forcing him to confront a series of potentially painful choices at a perilous economic moment….
But business groups, fiscal hawks and some congressional Democrats are calling on Mr. Biden to begin negotiating in earnest toward a deal that would avoid a default on the debt, which could come as soon as June or July.
The Washington Post ed board sides with the Rs too:
It’s time for Biden to call McCarthy. A lot….
Mr. Biden’s insistence that House Republicans pass a clean debt-limit increase without any strings attached is the morally and economically correct course of action. But reality has to sink in. It would be wise for Mr. Biden to start talking seriously with Mr. McCarthy. Budget talks can remain on a separate path, but they need to commence.
2. Will efforts by the White House to get the upper hand back by putting in-district pressure on moderate House Republicans work?
Maybe, but it is significantly less likely now that Team Biden-Harris-Schumer-Jeffries has lost their Big Biz allies, per the Washington Post:
Whether the president or McCarthy blinks first could be determined by the public’s perception of who is being more reasonable, and the battle on that score seemed to begin in earnest Thursday. A growing number of business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, have called on the White House to come to the table to discuss McCarthy’s proposal.
3. Can House Republicans stick together for the next round(s)?
Kim Strassel says they must:
Speaker Kevin McCarthy did more than pass a debt-ceiling bill this week. He blew up President Biden’s entire operating assumption. Democrats aren’t the only game in town after all….
The big question is whether Republicans will remember this taste of victory. Hard as this bill was, it’s still the easy part. In any coming negotiations, Mr. Biden will demand concessions. Mr. McCarthy knows that, and it’s one reason why the bill contains a wide variety of provisions, and why it only extends the debt limit to early next year. Democrats at the very least will want that date pushed past the presidential election, even as they work to restore broad areas of spending.
Are Republicans wise enough to realize that any spending reduction is better than the status quo, and that even a slimmed down package is a huge win? If they pull off a final debt deal with Mr. Biden, they will have reset the D.C. dynamic—making clear they are a force to be reckoned with. That positions them to advance their priorities in future must-pass legislation, like appropriations bills.
If they collapse in disarray, Democrats go back to calling the shots. Strength in unity. Irrelevance in disarray.
Tom “Owl Eyes” Cole teases that only some of them must, via the New York Times:
Top Republicans now hope that passage of the House G.O.P. plan prompts a dialogue between Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy that results in a deal both sides can swallow even if it is not fully to their liking. Fig leaves might be in order to protect Mr. McCarthy from criticism that he gave too much ground on spending and to allow the White House to say it had not abandoned its refusal to negotiate over the debt limit…..
“If a deal comes back as a negotiated settlement, there will be some people who will inevitably be disappointed,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma and the chairman of the Rules Committee. “But I do think we’ll get something, and I’m comfortable the speaker will bring us back something that a majority of us can and will vote for.”
4. When will the White House and the Speaker come to terms with the reality that likely the only way to avoid a debt ceiling calamity is with a joint whip operation in the House, requiring a level of Biden-McCarthy trust, cooperation, and communication that is currently unimaginable?
Unclear because this is the toughie.
5. Will Ron DeSantis get better at being a presidential candidate when he is actually a presidential candidate?
The Gang of 500’s official chief tire kicker, Peggy Noonan, goes with the “but-but” (a/k/a: “the double but”):
On the Republican side the great not-Trump option, the consistent number two in the polls, has been deflating. It is too early to say Ron DeSantis’s candidacy won’t work. But it feels like it won’t work. But life is surprising….
Mr. DeSantis isn’t good at explaining his thinking…
Then Ms. Noonan has the good sense to quote one of the Gang’s premiere deputy tire kickers:
Mr. DeSantis is reported to be announcing his presidential run later this spring. I got an interesting note about him the other day from the veteran political operative Alex Castellanos. He said the problem for Mr. DeSantis is not that he’s unlikable: “The problem for Ron is worse. It’s that he does not like us.” When voters see a political figure likes them, they start to trust him, because they know “he will do a lot to preserve their affection.”
6. Will the Trump template to simulate retail campaigning in the early voting states (long speech with teleprompter and/but lots of adlibs; not a full-on rally, and/but still a big crowd; post-speech “impromptu” stop at a casual restaurant with light and lite voter interactions) continue to work?
Maybe other formats will be required, but the Red Arrow diner OTR in New Hampshire Thursday seemed to extend the winning streak.
7. Will history record Ron DeSantis’ four-nation overseas trip as a domestic political success for his presidential ambitions?
The New York Times generously declares a mixed verdict; ask would-be caucus attendees who live in Ankeny if they even know the journey happened.
8. Will Bobby Kennedy’s next run of media coverage be in the “isn’t this exciting – maybe he can give Biden a real scare!” category OR the “here’s the opposition research that proves this guy is a kook!” category?
That’s up to Team Biden, the media, and Mr. Kennedy himself.
9. Is Mr. Trump really thinking of messing with the RNC’s debate schedule or just looking for leverage over moderators, formats, and timing?
We are a long, long, long way from knowing the answer to that. A guy who has been consistently hitting above 50% in a crowded nomination field holds a lot of high cards.
10. Who will emerge from the Western Conference to play the Celtics in the NBA finals, in one of the most interesting post-seasons in years?
It doesn’t really matter, now does it?