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White House advisers believe the coronavirus response will be the determinative factor in the success of Biden’s presidency, acknowledging his term will rise or fall on his team’s ability to get the virus under control and Americans back to work. (Washington Post)
In Joe Biden’s Washington (and Joe Biden’s America), he will address the nation triumphantly Thursday night, after shepherding through Congress a massive piece of legislation that is now widely popular with his fellow citizens and with his fellow elected Democrats.
The economy, school and business reopenings, and vaccine distribution continue to hum along, all apparently on a glide path to greater and greater success throughout 2021.
All of Biden’s living presidential predecessors (save one) are participating in a series of new vaccine public service announcements, heralding the kind of bipartisan era of good cheer Biden relishes and promised. (Watch one with President Barack Obama here.)
On the economy, the New York Times, without fear of contradiction, writes:
The Biden team also appears to have economic circumstances working in its favor. Job growth accelerated in February, Mr. Biden’s first full month in office. Forecasters expect economic growth to speed up even more in the months to come because of the increasingly widespread deployment of Covid-19 vaccines across the country, which should allow consumers to start spending more on activities like traveling or dining out, which many have cut back on over the past year because of the pandemic.
Forecasters expect the relief package to further fuel growth, in part by shuttling money to low- and middle-income Americans who disproportionately lost jobs and incomes in the crisis. The O.E.C.D. predicted this week that the Biden plan would help the United States economy grow at a 6.5 percent rate this year, which would be its fastest annual clip since the early 1980s.
Explaining why progressives are high as kites over the bill Mr. Biden plans to sign on Friday, both the Times and the Washington Post have essential reading stories on how the just-passed package represents New Deal/Great Society-type stuff to the left and the nation, with the president now seen by many as going from “Working Class Joe” to “Poverty Fighter Joe.”
Even (read: especially) the Wall Street Journal editorial board sees a policy and political landslide in favor of the left – and predicts it could well go on and on:
All of this is giving Democrats growing confidence that they can drive their agenda into law despite historically narrow majorities. They’ll pass huge tax increases on a party-line vote. They also still hope to peel off enough GOP Senators to raise the minimum wage, perhaps to $11 or $12 an hour, and for $2 trillion in green energy and public-works spending. Don’t be surprised if they succeed.
Trump World seems to agree that Joe and Co. are on a roll:
“We’ve lost the narrative on this covid package,” said one former Trump administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations. “It’s overwhelmingly supported, and we haven’t done a good job to message why Americans should oppose it.”
Others think Biden has good fortune coming his way because an economic rebound is sure to follow the end of the pandemic.
“The trouble for Republicans is that the economy is really going to take off,” said Stephen Moore, who advised Trump on economic matters. “It’s a strong rest of the year we’re looking at, which means Biden will be able to take care of it even though it’s mostly the vaccine. The stimulus is the vaccine.” (Washington Post)
It is hard to see the economy doing anything but growing at a fast clip in 2021 and, likely 2022.
It is hard to see the combined vaccine efforts of Trump and Biden leading to anything but deep control of the pandemic by the fall at the latest, meaning the 2021 holiday season is going to be filled with normality and gratitude that kids are largely back in school.
So with Biden White House officials jostling to go on the record with reporters about how well everything is going, cabinet secretaries being confirmed at a rapid clip, and Trump-infused Republican infighting proceeding apace, is it time for South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to clear space on Rushmore for a big Biden head?
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Maybe not.
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Democratic euphoria is for this news cycle fueled by passage of the pandemic+ relief package, about which Karl Rove writes:
Democrats had their way on this bill, but as with the 2009 Obama-Biden bailout, they may come to rue it. Americans are practical: The more they learn about this bill, the more they might ask why we spent all that money and ran up all that red ink simply to reward Democratic constituencies. If that happens, it will be because Republicans make persuasive and principled arguments.
The right’s attempts to lower public approval of the measure is something that will play out over time.
More immediately, what could go wrong for Team Biden?
I recently wrote about the Democrats’ rosiest scenario.
So here is the thorniest one.
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* Biden’s Thursday speech, and TBA first full press conference and address to a joint session of Congress are all duds, in which his limited rhetorical skills, inability to hold the public’s attention, and tapered capacities are all on vivid display.
* The pandemic comes rushing back via a new strain or something unforeseen.
* The “challenges” on the Mexican border become less like a crisis and more like an all-consuming, human and political catastrophe.
* The troubled relationship between Susan Collins and Chuck Schumer drives a stake into any meaningful bipartisan legislating.
* Joe Manchin decides to be more West Virginia than West L.A.
* The left finally gets restless/defiant and wonders why they can’t pass into law voting rights, gun safety, minimum wage, policing reform, union rights, and other legislation if they control both chambers and the White House.
* The Biden administration is forced to grapple with the fortunes of Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom to an extent that is both distracting and politically dangerous.
* China and Russia (who are, shades of the 1970s, cooperating on space exploration) create all sorts of geopolitical and cyber mischief. Not to mention (well, to mention….) Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, etc.
* A variety of social and policy issue positions that are largely blessed by the Dominant Media in fact lead to an erosion in Democratic support (the economy notwithstanding) that knocks the party in the teeth come 2022, including the socialist takeover of the Nevada state party, the elevation of trans rights in sports, and other issues as detailed in Tom Edsall’s essential reading column:
The increased level of support for the Republican Party among minority voters has raised the possibility that the cultural agenda pressed by another expanding and influential Democratic constituency — well-educated, young activists with strongly progressive views — is at loggerheads with the socially conservative beliefs of many older minority voters — although liberal economic policies remain popular with both cohorts. This social and cultural mismatch, according to some observers, is driving a number of minority voters into the opposition party.
And, as always, the looming threat of a Martian invasion.
See you for an early lunch at Lauriol Plaza.
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ESSENTIAL READING
The Washington Post on the potential for a bipartisan bill on China, which, if true, could invalidate this entire edition of Wide World of News.
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On Wednesday, I misspelled Burt Bacharach’s name. Not the “Burt” part. I regret the error.
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