I have reluctantly, with a heavy heart, and an at least partial awareness of the implications, reached the conclusion that the United States will and must lead the effort in World War III to defeat Putin.
The macro reason: In a battle of good versus evil, with the order of the planet at stake and the implications of defeat mammoth, a partial effort to stop the Russian despot is simply untenable.
The micro explanations pile up daily: the bombing of the maternity hospital; the threatened use of chemical weapons; the kabuki “peace” talks; the fundamental illogic of the decision to reject the Polish planes; the mounting refugee and humanitarian crises; the massive distraction of the U.S. and the world from dealing with other pressing needs.
The American-led coalition of the willing could continue to try partial measures to help the Ukrainians win the war, but that is not a sure thing, to understate the matter, with many hands tied behind our backs. And the best case in that scenario is likely a deal with Putin that would give him Crimea, the Donbas, and a promise that Ukraine will not become part of NATO. Such an agreement would only embolden Russia and set an unacceptable precedent for the world.
There is also this reality: President Zelensky is now a singular moral, cultural, and diplomatic force on Earth, and he is, in effect, calling for WWIII:
As Russia’s assault on Ukraine enters its second week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shifted from rallying world leaders — who have levied historic economic and financial sanctions against Russia — to shaming them for not doing more to hasten the war’s end.
On Wednesday, Zelensky shared with his 5.1 million Twitter followers video of what Ukrainian officials said was the aftermath of a Russian military strike on a maternity hospital in Mariupol.
“People, children are under the wreckage. Atrocity!” Zelensky wrote. “How much longer will the world be an accomplice ignoring terror? Close the sky right now!” he demanded, repeating his call for Western nations to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The United States and other NATO members have refused, saying that would risk putting them in direct conflict with Russia and igniting a wider war. (Washington Post)
And the West can’t kid itself; the global unity is a myth. There are plenty of nations that are siding with evil over good, just as in the past world wars.
Many countries in the developing world, including some of Russia’s closest allies, are unsettled by Putin’s breach of Ukrainian sovereignty. Yet the giants of the Global South — including India, Brazil and South Africa — are hedging their bets while China still publicly backs Putin. Even NATO-member Turkey is acting coy, moving to shut off the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to all warships, not just the Russians.
Just as Western onlookers often shrug at far-flung conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, some citizens in emerging economies are gazing at Ukraine and seeing themselves without a dog in this fight — and with compelling national interests for not alienating Russia. In a broad swath of the developing world, the Kremlin’s talking points are filtering into mainstream news and social media. But even more measured assessments portray Ukraine as not the battle royal between good and evil being witnessed by the West, but a Machiavellian tug of war between Washington and Moscow.
We “should keep an equal distance from both imperial powers,” wrote columnist Fuat Bol in Turkey’s Hürriyet.
A drawn-out military conflict will be costly in terms of blood and treasure and cause great and constant anxiety and economic disruption in Europe to rival (or exceed) that caused by the pandemic, as nations hold their breath in worry.
Per the Associated Press:
For some European countries watching Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, there are fears that they could be next.
Western officials say the most vulnerable could be those who aren’t members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected — including Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and Russia’s neighbor Georgia, both of them formerly part of the Soviet Union — along with the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo.
But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Russia’s doorstep, as well as Montenegro, either from Moscow’s direct military intervention or attempts at political destabilization.
To be sure, there are ways for the West to ease into fighting WWIII.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, Joe Lieberman makes the best case I have heard for enforcing a no-fly zone.
On the same page, Daniel Henninger suggests drawing the line in one key Ukrainian city:
An alternative exists between the devil of World War III and the deep blue sea of a full Putin seizure of Ukraine.
As of this date, one significant fully free city exists in Ukraine. That is Lviv. Before it is too late, the world—led by NATO—should guarantee Lviv’s status as a free city, as in 1948 the Western powers did for West Berlin.
Yes, we can gradually ramp up in such a manner. But moves like those will be dangerous in so many ways, including running the risk of “provoking” Putin.
What we have now is ruthless dictator using a massive military force on our brave ally in the heart of Europe. We can’t defeat Putin walking on eggshells. It is no longer rational or tenable for the coalition of the willing to make high-stakes daily decisions with our North Star being “we can’t provoke Putin.”
History is not over. History is staring us in the face.
We might not be ready, but we must be ready.
From the Washington Post:
Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, suggested the next round of aid will be dependent on the success of Zelensky’s forces at holding off the Russian military.
“Where’s Ukraine going to be three weeks from now, four weeks from now?” Leahy asked, suggesting that Putin’s menacing decisions have created an unusual amount of unity in Congress to keep up the support.
“There will be strong support here for Ukraine,” Leahy said, adding, “Whenever needed, whenever needed.”
The implications of what I am arguing for are vast and horrible. How WWIII ends up short of a nuclear conflict and the large-scale death that would bring is not clear to me.
What is clear is that Putin is a desperate, nuclear-armed Hitler.
As wonderful and swift as the coalition reaction has been to date, it is not enough.
Not enough for President Zelensky, not enough to stop Putin, not enough for history and morality.
We must fight and win this war, to honor the past, secure the present, and give a future to our children and grandchildren that they can be proud of and thrive in.
Now, freed from the eggshells, we must figure out how.
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