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It’s the quiet before the storm, the lull before the Perils of Capitol Hill unfurl, the pacific before the near-term fate of Team Biden-Harris-Klain-Pelosi-Schumer is decided in a swirling hurly burly of decisions, feints, compromises, and stand-your-grounding.
It’s Monday.
With nothing on President Biden’s schedule and the Big Four (debt ceiling, government shutdown, reconciliation, and infrastructure) all hanging in the balance, the day’s expected twin marquee events are the doomed Senate vote on the debt ceiling/continuing resolution and Speaker Pelosi’s planned meeting with the Democratic caucus at 5:30pm ET.
Let’s review the Big Four coverage and then my own sense of things:
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Lede:
It’s a consequential week for President Joe Biden’s agenda, as Democratic leaders delicately trim back his $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” package to win over remaining lawmakers and work to quickly pass legislation to avoid a federal shutdown.
An expected Monday vote on a related $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package is now postponed until Thursday, amid ongoing negotiations. More immediately, the Senate has a test vote set Monday to keep the government funded and avert a federal debt default before Thursday’s fiscal year-end deadline. That package stands to run into a blockade by Republican senators — all but ensuring lawmakers will have to try again later in the week.
Nugget:
Pelosi suggested that House-Senate agreement could be reached this week, depending on rulings from the Senate parliamentarian on what provisions could be included.
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WALL STREET JOURNAL (#1)
Lede:
A slew of high-stakes deadlines will collide on Capitol Hill this week, setting up potentially chaotic negotiations against the backdrop of expiring government funding and the threat of a possible U.S. default.
Nugget:
Democratic leaders haven’t spelled out what their next step will be [on a continuing resolution]. But Mrs. Pelosi reiterated Sunday that the government wouldn’t go into a partial shutdown, suggesting that Democratic leaders are prepared to bring up just a short-term spending patch, which has bipartisan support, to avoid that outcome.
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WALL STREET JOURNAL (#2)
Lede:
Senate Democrats trying to pass a sweeping education, healthcare and climate package must first crack an enigma: What does centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema want?
Nugget:
Despite sometimes taking contrary positions in negotiations, Ms. Sinema has voted with Mr. Biden 100% of the time, according to the nonpartisan tracking website FiveThirtyEight.
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POLITICO (#1)
Lede:
Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday announced the House will vote Thursday on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill, as Democratic leaders race to unify their fractious caucus ahead of a critical week.
Nugget:
Some of those centrists who sought that Sept. 27 deadline were privately fuming Sunday night over Pelosi's announcement, according to people familiar with the conversations. Some of those tensions are likely to flare Monday evening, when House Democrats meet for a private caucus meeting.
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POLITICO (#2)
Lede:
Though he is beset by turmoil overseas, confronting chaos at the border and struggling to contain a deadly pandemic back home, the president’s main challenge this week comes from his own party.
With his economic and domestic policy agenda on the line, President Joe Biden needs a big win from his fellow Democrats, whose early unity around his presidency has been strained as summer turns to fall. Biden’s now trying to coax them back together — and avert an electoral disaster in 2022.
Nugget:
From Camp David, [Biden] worked the phones with lawmakers over the weekend, urging them to support the multitrillion spending package party leaders are looking to pass this month. Senior adviser Steve Ricchetti, Biden top economic adviser Brian Deese, another economic adviser, David Kamin and the White House’s legislative affairs team led by Louisa Terrell lobbied lawmakers too, visiting the Hill, calling members and holding Zoom sessions with them.
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NEW YORK TIMES (#1)
Lede:
Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California said on Sunday night that the House would vote on a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Thursday, giving Democrats more time to reach a consensus on President Biden’s sprawling domestic policy package.
The vote will come hours before government funding — as well as key transportation programs addressed in the infrastructure bill — is scheduled to lapse on Oct. 1, leaving lawmakers with a narrow margin for error.
Nugget: none
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NEW YORK TIMES (#2)
Lede:
For nearly two decades, lawmakers in Washington have waged an escalating display of brinkmanship over the federal government’s ability to borrow money to pay its bills. They have forced administrations of both parties to take evasive actions, pushing the nation dangerously close to economic calamity. But they have never actually tipped the United States into default.
The dance is repeating this fall, but this time the dynamics are different — and the threat of default is greater than ever.
Nugget (#1):
The problem is further compounded by the fact that no one is quite sure when the government will run out of money. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to ravage the United States in waves, frequently disrupting economic activity and the taxes the government collects, complicating Treasury’s ability to gauge its cash flow. Estimates for what’s known as the “X-date” range from as early as Oct. 15 to mid-November.
Nugget (#2):
Under President George W. Bush, Democrats, including Mr. Biden, voted in 2006 against a debt limit increase, citing Mr. Bush’s budget deficits that were swollen by tax cuts and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They did so despite warnings from administration officials that a default would hurt the nation’s credit rating and economy.
Mr. Biden, like many other Democrats, said he could not abet Mr. Bush’s fiscal decisions. But his party did not filibuster a vote and Republicans were able to pass a debt limit increase along party lines. White House officials say Mr. Biden’s vote was symbolic, noting that the ability of Republicans to raise the debt ceiling was never in question.
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WALL STREET JOURNAL ED BOARD
Lede:
Can Nancy Pelosi bull-rush her few House moderates and Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema ? That seems to be her strategy this week as she prepares to jam a $3.5 trillion (really $5 trillion) tax and spending bill through Congress.
Nugget:
The bigger imponderable is whether she and President Biden can bludgeon hesitant Senators into submission. Mrs. Pelosi promised her caucus any bill will be pre-negotiated with the Senate before a vote. But she may have to break that pledge, and many House Democrats have already taken votes in committee that could end their political careers in 2022.
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HEATHER COX RICHARDSON
Lede:
All signs suggest that this coming week, politics are going to be hopping. It's a good time to take a breath and rest up for what's on the horizon.
I'll see you tomorrow.
Nugget:
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MARK HALPERIN
Lede: Amazingly, the president’s public passivity about how all four of the Big Four will turn out continues at this writing.
Nugget: Watch closely the Biden-McConnell and Jayapal-Gottheimer staring contests. The Big Four will remain unresolved until these face-offs move from zero-sum situations to actual negotiations and compromise (or to vanquishing).
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YOUR MONDAY WWON CHEATSHEET
Debt ceiling standoff: still unsolved, as the Wall Street Journal essential writes a piece on the Fed’s emergency plans
Government shutdown standoff: still unsolved, with a Senate vote drawing zero or a handful of Republican votes, leading to another round of PR clashing
Infrastructure: vote now scheduled for Thursday; still nothing like 218 public “yes” commitments; still no obvious Biden-Pelosi plan for getting there
Reconciliation: still no agreement among Democrats on….anything with enough votes to pass; still a Pelosi move to demonstrate sufficient progress to convince progressives to pass infrastructure
Brian Laundrie: still missing
Border situation: still a crisis/challenge, even with the Del Rio bridge camp cleared
Pandemic: still getting under control by some measures; still out of control by others
Dominant Media’s relationship to Donald Trump: still can’t live without him
Democrats relationship to Donald Trump: still can’t live without him
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