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It now seems unlikely that there will be the kind of significant shifts in public battleground state polling that would cause a paradigm shift on the contours of the presidential race.
Which means, the Gang of 500 at its regular Lauriol Plaza Sunday brunch will infuse all they discuss with, “Biden is ahead, Biden has more money, Biden has his uninspiring-to-many-but-good-enough message down, Biden will benefit from all the energy and coalitions that powered the 2018 Blue Wave, Biden has more paths to 270.”
And: “The Trump message is still more about trash and trolling than about the economy, taxes and judges, Trump is behind, Trump really as of now has NO path to 270.”
But he does.
Once again, as usual, I preamble today’s Electoral College discussion with clarity that will be overrun on Twitter.
I still believe Biden is the heavy favorite to win. By demonstrating that Trump still has a way to win the race, I am not endorsing or rooting for that outcome. My candidate, as always, is the American people.
Currently, when I am asked by worried Bluelanders what could go wrong, I point first and foremost to the use of “likely voter” polls as “proof” Biden is ahead by enough that no amount of Trump voodoo could get him reelected.
Because of the composition of the electorate that would allow Trump to get a second term requires there be a lot of new voters that match his core demographic, it is difficult (especially in a poll that isn’t very well-funded and large) to actually define who a likely voter is before including them into the sample.
Add in the so-called “Hidden” or “Shy” Trump vote, the Republican field and social media operations, and, yes, voodoo, and it’s clear that in some states, at least, Trump’s chances are at least marginally better than the public polling suggests, and maybe significantly better.
The second point I warn Blueys about is the danger they face if Trump can win on Election Day enough states to put him within hailing distance of 270 while there are still important states left with close or delayed ballot totals.
There are clearly going to be result delays in at least some of the battleground states. Read this story about Bucks County, Pennsylvania’s expected slow counting and you will get an idea of the likelihood that there could well be enough states that are some combination of “too close to call” and “too early to call” that the final Electoral College result is in doubt.
Which takes us back to the topic that some of you are fascinated by and some of you are sick of: the Significant 6.
These are the key must-win states for Trump: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas.
As I’ve said before, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Biden wins them all. But four days of reporting with sources in and about all 6 states makes clear that Trump could win all 6 as well.
So, on the one hand, on Election Night, if Biden is declared the winner in ANY ONE of the 6, I believe the race is politically (if not mathematically) over.
But, on the other hand, look at what happens if Trump wins them all as he did in 2016:
That would leave Trump at 247 electoral votes, two or three states away from enough to triumph. (I will say again: I am not predicting that Trump will win all 6.)
Pennsylvania and Arizona are the most likely to be determinative, but if there are enough states from among the ones that are currently gray-brown on the map whose results are unknown after Election Day then things could get chaotic.
Odds are that at that point, legal action and rumor mongering would commence and the newly-configured Supreme Court could deliver to the president the final 23 electoral votes he would need under the Trump-wins-all-the-Significant-Six scenario.
No matter what the margin of the count is in the remaining battlegrounds, on, say, November 5, Trump could easily start down two tracks, suing and spreading rumors about alleged casting and counting shenanigans and keep the hunt alive.
Stuff could happen, but as of now it appears binary to me:
1. Biden wins any one of the Significant 6 and the race is over
OR
2. Trump wins all 6 and the race goes to overtime.
There are a lot of variables and ways to think about the contest but I think that is pretty much the one that matters now.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Dan Balz frames the current Electoral College situation superbly.
* This one sentence from a solid overview of the Biden candidacy to date in the Washington Post:
Biden has brought into public view an existing chip on his shoulder but always directed it at Trump.
If you want to explain the state of the race from Biden’s point of view, that is the distillation.
* Some interesting answers by Biden in a local Pennsylvania interview, and another reminder of the Biden luck, with reporters still phrasing “tough” questions to him in a manner that is both general and imprecise, which makes it pretty easy for the former VP to answer and makes his staff laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.
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TWO POLITICAL ADS THAT SHOULD MAKE YOU AT LEAST SMILE
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Rest in peace, Jerry Jeff Walker.
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Epically unpredictable World Series Game 4 as Dodgers' bottom of 9th sloppy play delivers Rays walk-off victory.
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Comedy, drama, and the latest information….
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