THE MOTHER OF ALL CHEAT SHEETS
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Headed back to work, onto Zooms and family FaceTimes?
Here are the brief bon mots you need to look wicked smart:
GUN SAFETY TALKS
Reasons to think a version of the bipartisan Senate agreement will pass:
In addition to ten Republican Senators, the outline has the backing of Pelosi, Biden, Schumer, major gun safety groups, McConnell (sort of), the Dominant Media, and the public.
Reasons to think a version of the deal won’t pass:
Codifying the pact will take time (which, given the summer breaks, could sap the current momentum,) the NRA has not yet taken a position, the MAGA wing of the Republican Party is coming after the “RINOS,” and this from the Washington Post:
“The details will be critical for Republicans, particularly the firearms-related provisions,” said a GOP aide familiar with the talks. “One or more of these principles could be dropped if text is not agreed to.”
Money also stands to be a sticking point. The framework proposes funding commitments that could easily run into the billions of dollars, and Republicans want any new spending to be offset with cuts elsewhere in the federal budget, people involved in the negotiations said.
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1/6 COMMITTEE
Day 2 is scheduled to begin today at 10am ET, with Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Bill Stepien as the most intriguing witness. Appearing under subpoena, will the cagey operative be a hostile witness towards investigators, or an historical figure who changes the Trump paradigm (or both or neither)?
The hearing is sure to be important and enlightening, but if the point of it is to prove that Mr. Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen were known to him to be false from the get-go and that these claims were a dangerous antecedent to the 1/6 assault, I believe the committee will be arguing past the closing for any American with access to data and a clear head.
Spoiler alert: He knew he was lying and did not care about the consequences.
Still: Attention must be paid.
Marquee: Cheney vs. Stepien.
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GAS PRICES
Increased public interest in what is actually driving the rise (If there is a supply issue, where are the long lines and rationing…?), doesn’t change the economic reality for families (filling up costs too damn much) or the political pain for Ron Klain.
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PRESIDENT BIDEN’S THEORY OF THE CASE ON THE ECONOMY
Per the White House week-ahead schedule, there are two signature events on the calendar:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022
The President will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to deliver remarks on his strategy of building an economy around the power and possibilities of working people—an economy that rewards work, not just wealth—at the 29th AFL-CIO Quadrennial Convention.
Friday, June 17, 2022
The President will host the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) where he will reaffirm U.S. leadership combatting the climate crisis and join world leaders to build long-term solutions while delivering good-paying jobs at home.
It is not being negative, just observational, to put the odds that either of these events breaks through and gives the American people confidence in the capacity of Joe Biden to be the good steward of a good economy as lower than the Celtics chances of winning the NBA finals.
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POP VIEW OF WRONG TRACK ON THE ECONOMY
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CONFIDENCE IN THE FED TO FIX WHAT AILS AMERICA
The Wall Street Journal news pages cast a lot of doubt on the Fed pulling this off, with Chairman Powell’s planned Wednesday press conference arguably the highest stakes public event for a Fed topper in a long time — one as likely to change the game in a positive way as those two Biden speeches are to break through.
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PUTIN’S INVASION
The Associated Press nails the grim CW:
Day after day, Russia is pounding the Donbas region of Ukraine with relentless artillery and air raids, making slow but steady progress to seize the industrial heartland of its neighbor.
With the conflict now in its fourth month, it’s a high-stakes campaign that could dictate the course of the entire war.
If Russia prevails in the battle of Donbas, it will mean that Ukraine loses not only land but perhaps the bulk of its most capable military forces, opening the way for Moscow to grab more territory and dictate its terms to Kyiv. A Russian failure could lay the grounds for a Ukrainian counteroffensive — and possibly lead to political upheaval for the Kremlin.
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COMPETITIVENESS BILL
This will remain stuck in conference committee limbo until Speaker Pelosi tells her conferees to get on board with (basically) the Senate version of the bill. So far, that isn’t close to happening.
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MIDTERMS
Both the Washington Post and the Associated Press go to Vegas to examine the state of play as Democrats struggle, as per the AP:
Just like endangered Democrats in other states, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is running against Washington.
The Nevada Democrat, nearing the end of her first six-year term, ignores the fact that her party controls both chambers of Congress and the White House as she explains the rationale for her candidacy.
“I’m running for reelection because you deserve a senator who will cut through the gridlock and dysfunction in Washington and deliver real results for your family,” Cortez Masto says on her campaign website. “I’ll work with anyone — Democrats, Republicans and independents — to help Nevada’s families succeed.”
Cortez Masto, who will easily win her party’s nomination for another term on Tuesday, is far from alone.
Many of the nation’s most vulnerable Democrats are actively trying to distance themselves from Washington — and their party. Responding to deep frustration from voters who will decide their fate in November, Democratic candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire are railing against the institutions their party has managed for the last 16 months.
Raise your hand if you know what Mitch McConnell thinks of this strategy.
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BIDEN 2024
More troubling for Team Biden than AOC’s Sunday show unwillingness to back the POTUS for four more years: the lack of surprise or censure from the Democratic Party or its media allies. If you see a linear path to a successful Biden re-elect, please, again, raise your hand.
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TRUMP 2024
The GOP’s 1,100-pound gorilla (slimmed down from 1,200) could be reduced further by congressional, legal, and primary events over the next two months — and he will still be the biggest monkey in the jungle by a lot of pounds.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Politico gets a rare interview with Susan Rice (and a less-rare interview with Ron Klain, praising Susan Rice), in a profile of the extremely powerful White House adviser.
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