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IF the Gang of 500 existed, and IF I conducted both a focus group and a poll with them, and IF they told me what they really think, this is what we would find:
* It is never, ever, ever too early to game out the next presidential election – and anyone who thinks otherwise is de facto not ever going to be eligible for Gang membership.
* While Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the frontrunners for their respective party nominations, neither will be elected president in 2024.
* The reasons for these parallel predictions are not symmetrical however. Despite a recent run of stories about the Biden “comeback” (see today’s essential reading New York Times story on this meme), Democratic officeholders are even more bearish on Biden ’24 than the public is (and the brutal polling suggesting historically low numbers of Democrats want their incumbent president to run again). Dean Phillips is all at once the tip of the iceberg, the canary in the coal mine, and the voice for the (mostly) voiceless, whose views will not change, regardless of the passage of any additional legislation or executive actions:
* Although Joe Biden and his folks say otherwise, 3% of the Gang thinks Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024; the only real intra-Gang debate on this is WHEN and HOW Mr. Biden will/should announce his no-go.
* Mr. Trump’s situation is different. The Gang is split 50-50 on whether Trump will be the Republican nominee again. Breaking down the 50% who think he will NOT be, 25% think he will choose not to run again (because he hates being a loser and he would lose the general election) and 25% think he will be indicted or too sick to run. Of the 50% who think he will be the nominee, only a statistically insignificant number believe he would win the general election.
[In this, the Gang vastly understates the prospects of Trump returning to the White House. For reasons not clear to this reporter, Gang members discount or disregard the view of Joe Biden and his able pollster John Anzalone, who say the ONLY Democrat who can beat Trump in a one-on-one general election is Biden.]
* The Gang thinks Ron DeSantis is easily the most likely nominee if it is not Trump; 70% believe DeSantis could beat Trump in a nomination contest that is effectively one-on-one, while 30% do not. However, 80% believe that there will be enough additional candidates in the race to make it NOT one-on-one, allowing Trump to win. 100% would like to clear the field so someone, ANYONE, could stop Trump from being the nominee.
* In a Trump-less field, 95% believe the nominee would be either DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin. The drop off after those top three (Trump, DeSantis, and Youngkin) is massive, with various dribs and drabs of touting of Mike Pompeo, and high levels of dismissive rates about Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Nikki Haley.
* The Republican members of the Gang overwhelmingly like their chances of running against the Biden-Harris record and taking back the White House regardless of who their nominee is (assuming it is not Trump).
* The Democratic members of the Gang are in an odd spot. Some think Biden is their best hope to hold the White House (especially if Trump is the nominee), but almost none of them think he will run again. And they have no idea who a strong nominee could be.
* The entire Gang is unanimous that neither Kamala Harris nor Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2024, although rules neither out as the nominee, with many more thinking it would be Harris than think it would be Clinton.
* They believe that no matter how many times Politico or the Washington Post write “Harris Turns the Page” stories quoting her allies about how she is finally finding her footing (today’s latest Washington Post version is essential reading, if only for you to see how strikingly similar this one is to all the versions that have come before it), that Harris probably won’t be the nominee – and, if she is, she will lose the general election.
* They feel the same way about Bernie Sanders, who, along with Clinton, they can see maybe winning the nomination but not the general. They are against either Sanders or Clinton being the standard bearer, however.
* Their views of other hopefuls:
Warren: can’t win either the nomination or the general
Newsom: impossible to run for president from Sacramento
Buttigieg: can win the nomination and the general on paper (but elections are not conducted on paper, paper ballots notwithstanding)
Everyone else: who knows?
In conclusion: The Gang pays close attention to 2024 presidential politics and thinks DeSantis or Youngkin will be the next White House occupant.
The end.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* The New York Times on Trump’s current relationship with Fox News.
* Politico on the NRSC recognizing it needs a path to a Senate majority that doesn’t involve Dr. Oz winning, a story filled with NRSC and Oz campaign spin that everything is just peachy.
I will say again: Republican Senate candidates in PA, GA, OH, NC, NV, and AZ are all currently either B or C level prospects, running against either incumbents or candidates whose skill sets and polling suggest are at this moment stronger than what the Republicans have on offer.
Republicans are putting a lot of stock in negative TV ads, while Democrats have a lot of cash to run their own spots — and killing B and C level candidates with negative ads tends to be pretty effective.
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