The Next Speaker of the House
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Politico, Election Day, 2022:
Jeff Miller is not a household name, but he stands to yield tremendous influence when the next Congress gets sworn into office.
That’s because no one on K Street is as close to Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Miller.
“A lot of people like to think that they’re close to Kevin,” said a former McCarthy aide. “There are very few people who actually talk to him about stuff or that he reaches out to proactively on stuff … Obviously, Jeff is a very key and central figure of that group.”
The two met when Miller was in high school working as a Republican Party intern and McCarthy, 10 years his senior, was a district field rep for a California congressman. By the time McCarthy was bidding to lead the Republican conference back in 2015, Miller had the lawmaker’s ear. And he’s remained a steadfast ally, close confidant, travel companion, helpful fundraiser, and political consigliere ever since.
****
TO: Kevin
FROM: Jeff
DATE: 1/3/23
RE: Today…and beyond….
Good morning, Mr. Speaker-to-Be (maybe!).
Here’s how today will go.
You will give your best Braveheart speech to the Conference at 9:30am in the basement of the Capitol. Punchbowl and Politico will live tweet your every word, then annotate that with quotes from Matt Gaetz and other rebels saying your words won no one over.
At noon, the full House will convene, starting with prayer and the Pledge of Allegiance. After a quorum call will be nominations speeches for you and Mr. Jeffries, then the alphabetical roll call vote.
Unfortunately, we expect full (or near full) attendance, so you are going to fall short of the 218 majority needed on that first vote.
This will be the critical moment, when the more than 200 members of the Conference who support you and our many outside allies will be able to say to the rebels, Do you want chaos or leadership?
Our line will be that you are ready to lead, but these nihilists have no plan – except to oppose, which will delay the serving of the fruits of our control of the House.
Our messaging will follow along with what was in the New York Post editorial we got placed, with a direct message to the Five plus their followers: Grow up. Drop this pointless crusade and get to work.
The good news for us remains that our 200 or so votes are rock solid as we start the day. You are still, in their eyes, the right choice for Speaker – and the ONLY person who can get the votes needed to win the job.
The bad news is that our opponents are not scared of you and far too many of our supporters now think you are doomed.
They are musing with K Streeters, donors, and activists about Scalise, Tom Cole, or some other fallback.
Steve is doing what he can, but the body language ain’t great. He will not wait until the corpse is lukewarm to make it clear he will serve if called on.
Our biggest worry now is the second ballot. There are indications that the opposition will hold some “no” votes back on the first round.
That means on the second roll call, rather than pick up votes, you will be seen as going backwards, infecting the thinking of the pundits and the skittish in the Conference. Some of the uncommitted freshmen and women are a particular danger here.
By this point, there could be as many as almost two dozen Republican members voting against you.
With our momentum stalled and blood in the water, various names of potential alternatives will begin to be floated or announced, and then we are likely screwed.
Our macho assurances that we are going to just keep voting and voting until you win a majority will at that point be in shambles. We have convinced the New York Times that you will “stop at nothing to win the job,” but as the song goes, nothing from nothing leaves nothing.
Again, at that juncture, those claims that we will keep everyone on the floor to just do vote after vote will seem silly and pointless. And trying to get the Conference in a private room to win over the wayward is unlikely to work.
Our secret Hail Mary plan – to somehow change the threshold to a elect a Speaker to less than the majority – could produce a victory even more Pyrrhic than the one we are going for now.
Speaking of which, as we have long known, making all these concessions to the rebels is only setting you up for failure in this job. The New York Times says that it is all but guaranteed that “even if Mr. McCarthy eked out a victory, he would be a diminished speaker beholden to an empowered right flank.” Honestly, I can’t argue with that.
There are two narratives that the Dominant Media will use to frame everything you try to do as Speaker:
1. You are hostage to the far right, who will topple you at some point.
Look, this is politics. Anything could happen today.
And we might string this out until tomorrow.
But there is a real chance that the outcome by dinner time tonight will leave you with a choice: Keep voting until you face an inevitable loss or gracefully withdraw and effectively pick the next Speaker.
Let’s regroup our whip count after the 9:30am.
Whatever happens, I love you, man.
And my clients love me.
*****
ESSENTIAL READING ON THE SOUTHERN RING
* The Miami Herald previews the second swearing-in and inaugural address of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, while the Tampa Times/Herald has these shocking-but-not-surprising details:
The two-day affair is organized by a group of former campaign staffers that call themselves Team DeSantis, along with the Republican Party of Florida. Neither have publicly released a schedule of events. The public-facing website lists the official swearing-in ceremony on the steps of the Old Capitol at noon. The theme of the event mirrors the governor’s campaign slogan: “The Free State of Florida.”
Despite the absence of public information, the Herald/Times has confirmed that the events begin Monday night with an exclusive candlelight dinner at the newly completed Student Union at Florida State University. Donors are asked to pay $50,000 to $1 million for special access packages that include tickets to the dinner, VIP seats for the inauguration and tickets to the black-tie inaugural ball Tuesday, according to an invitation first reported by Politico.
Members of the public are invited only to the inauguration. The organizers asked people to register for free general admission tickets in advance, show ID to pick them up, and be in position on the lawn of the Old Capitol between 8:30 and 10:30 a.m. Tuesday for the event, which begins by 11 a.m.
Visitors are asked to park two miles away at a local mall, where shuttle buses will transport an undisclosed number of people. Tallahassee police are closing nearby roads for much of the day.
“We are not releasing any information until after the event,’’ said Lindsey Curnutt, spokesperson for the organizing committee.
DeSantis has jettisoned the traditional inaugural parade, as well as the prayer breakfast with religious leaders. Instead, First Lady Casey DeSantis will host a “Toast to One Million Mamas,” at the Governor’s Mansion after the inauguration. The invitation-only event is a hat tip to the conservative “Moms for Liberty” group, the culture warriors who helped the governor elevate his message shunning mask mandates in public schools, banning classroom conversations about gender, and electing conservatives to school boards throughout the state.
The evening will conclude with an inaugural ball at the Donald J. Tucker Civic Center, an invitation-only event that was often used as a fundraising opportunity for governors before him….
Unlike four years ago, when the inaugural committee released the list of donors as well as the schedule of events, this year none of the donors or their donations have been disclosed.