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HALPERIN’S ANSWER 1: Because when I do, I am consistently delighted by the generosity of my readers.
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Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned. -- Niels Bohr
It is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. – Mark Twain
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. – Yogi Berra
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I agree with all three of those gentlemen, but in the spirit of the late, great Bill Safire, I will give you my best, informed-by-reporting guesses about the major questions in American politics today.
How sure am I about my answers?
Eh.
Not 100%, but I am 100% sure these are the among the best answers on offer in North American morning tip sheets today.
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1. When will McConnell flip and (first) privately and (then) publicly tell Donald Trump he will not have another term?
HALPERIN’S ANSWER: The Kentuckian hopes the president reaches this conclusion on his own, without prodding, and he has reason to believe that that will happen.
2. When will Team Trump come up with compelling evidence that the president is in a position to be declared the legitimate winner of enough states to get to 270 electoral votes?
HALPERIN’S ANSWER: Never ever ever.
3. When will the president give up and give in?
“[E]ven some of the president’s most publicly pugilistic aides, including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and informal adviser Corey Lewandowski, have said privately that they are concerned about the lawsuits’ chances for success unless more evidence surfaces, according to people familiar with their views. (Washington Post, in a mega essential read on the state of play in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania)
HALPERIN ANSWER: Give up – by this weekend at the latest. Give in – never.
4. When will the president decamp from the White House, where will he go, and will he come back before January 20?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Shortly before Thanksgiving, likely Florida (but maybe first to Jersey), briefly if at all.
5. Will the president campaign in person in the Georgia Senate runoffs?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 77% chance.
6. Will Joe Biden campaign in person in Georgia?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 23% chance.
7. Will the Obamas campaign in person in Georgia?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 78% chance.
8. Will Trump use the final days to bust the place up on the way out, including pardons, including of himself?
HALPERIN ANSWER: He will and please make time for this essential reading David Ignatius column on Trump’s alleged threat to release information that could expose U.S. sources and methods regarding Russia’s posture towards American elections for a hint at all the unorthodox and worse things an angry lame duck can do.
9. Will Joe Biden pick cabinet nominees who could win confirmation in a Senate controlled by Mitch McConnell before he knows if the Senate will be controlled by Mitch McConnell?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Biden will pick thinking “yes” but he will likely be wrong in some cases.
10. If Biden picks cabinet nominees who could win confirmation in a Senate controlled by Mitch McConnell before he knows if the Senate will be controlled by Mitch McConnell, how will the left react?
HALPERIN ANSWER: With more meaningful fervor than Biden expects (since he thinks the left will see diversity > progressive views).
11. Will there be a lame duck deal on pandemic relief that finds a total spending number high enough for Nancy Pelosi and low enough for Mitch McConnell?
HALPERIN’S ANSWER: As of now, that is mathematically and politically impossible.
12. As House Democrats develop their posture for lame duck negotiations over a pandemic relief deal, will they factor in the danger of including “midnight basketball” elements that will make it easier for McConnell to get his way?
HALPERIN’S ANSWER: Nope.
13. Will Joe Biden do anything beyond repeated gauzy rhetoric to show he gets the views and aspirations of the 71 million who voted for Donald Trump – and that commands his 76 million+ voters to forgive (if not forget) and eases the way for Washington Republicans to work with him?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Check out these essential reading Washington Post op ed and Wall Street Journal editorial with suggestions of what would be required for Biden to make all that happen – and you will come to the conclusion that Biden does not understand the scope or dimensions of the challenge, and, even if he did, would unfortunately not be in a position to do much about all this (a set of problems that, in the short term, would be made 1,000,000 times easier if Democrats win both Senate races in Georgia).
14. What will the Dominant Media adopt as its favorite conflict-driven narratives of initial phase of the Biden Era?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Squad-Biden troubles, Biden failure to fully vet nominees, Biden ties to lobbyists.
15. How shocked will Team Biden be when the Dominant Media starts asking Biden and his spokespeople questions that hold them accountable to the public interest rather than softball questions about what a bad person Donald Trump is and how they feel about that?
HALPERIN ANSWER: More than they currently think. The real question: How ready will they be?
16. Will the Republican National Committee choose a new chair in the mode of Haley Barbour and Ron Brown (a savvy operator who gets the nexus between policy, politics, and the press – and who can spearhead a four-year-plan to win back the White House?
HALPERIN ANSWER: No.
17. Will the Democrats win both Georgia Senate runoffs?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 19% chance.
18. Will Biden and Trump ever speak again?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 40% chance.
19. Will Trump attend the inauguration?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 25% chance.
20. Will Biden’s inauguration address be short?
HALPERIN ANSWER: 98% chance.
21. Is Biden going to put aside his feelings about Mitch McConnell and do a full-court press to make some deals?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Luxuriate in this Wall Street Journal essential read and best-to-date look at the Biden-McConnell relationship and realize the answer is 110% yes on the trying part (but lower odds on the succeeding part).
22. Will a Majority Leader McConnell fear that not cooperating with Joe Biden will hurt his candidates’ chances of winning in 2022?
HALPERIN ANSWER: Despite endless Dominant Media speculation to the contrary, 2% chance.
23. Will Trump keep his options open to run in 2024?
HALPERIN ANSWER: If you need my answer to this one, you haven’t been paying any attention at all.
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