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Which of these outrages you (most)?
A. Red Twitter presenting a theory that a current Supreme Court clerk with a history of public support for abortion rights and ties to the reporter who broke the leak story was, in fact, the leaker?
B. The Blues publishing online the home addresses of conservative Supreme Court Justices to encourage protests at their homes?
C. The failure of the Reds to denounce (A)?
D. The failure of the White House to denounce (B)?
The answer: My call for The Presumption of Grace to animate how we grapple with all this has not fallen on fully hearing ears.
You might not have seen or read about any of the controversies above, but, trust me, in partisan Twitter, they are EVERYTHING.
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After a few days to report and reflect, I would say this about the impact on the midterms and 2024 of the leak and the expected ruling on abortion:
1. The impact will be less than Democrats hope and more than Republicans concede.
2. To some extent, the impact will depend on (duh) what the actual ruling is.
3. House races are less likely to be impacted than Senate races and gubernatorial contests.
4. The almost inevitable failure of the White House and Senate Democrats to pass almost anything connected to abortion rights will likely depress more than help turnout on the left.
5. Republican elected officials efforts to not “own” the overturning of Roe were more successful this week (primarily because of the leak diversion) than they will be in the fall.
6. The Dominant Media coverage has reflected its largely pro-choice bent, but it has not shown the level of absolute bias that I had expected; at the same time, one of the main Republican pushback talking points (on late-term abortions) will never, ever find a welcome home with the Dominant Media.
7. With married women voters a key to how this ends up playing in November, the role of conservative female elected officials and commentators will be key in determining how much the Reds can limit any electoral backlash. See Peggy Noonan for what many on the right will see as the template for defusing rhetoric that is soothing and/but unabashedly pro-life.
8. Democratic attempts to expand the alarm-ringing campaign to other issues such as contraception and LGBTQ rights are not destined for widespread success in 2022, for too many reasons to list here.
9. Donald Trump’s relative quiet over Roe in the wake of the leak (as in this interview with Politico) reflects his long-standing view of how the abortion issue plays in American politics (and in Manhattan social circles). Trump sees pro-life as essential in the context of Republican nomination politics and politically dangerous in any general election contest. And, truly, John Ellis broke the code on what could well turn out to be the biggest political implication of the expected decision:
Tuesday’s news that the Supreme Court was thisclose to overturning Roe v Wade (and Casey) was a huge win for Trump. It made him more than the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. It made him the overwhelming favorite.
One of the most important constituencies (if not the most important constituency) of the Republican primary electorate is white evangelical Christians. That constituency has been very active for a very long time in the campaign to overturn Roe v. Wade. They worked hard for the cause throughout the conservative presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, but progress was slow, incremental, state-by-state. When Trump was elected in 2016, it was unclear (to say the least) if he would abandon the Right-to-Life cause as quickly as he adopted it during the presidential primary campaign.
In the event, what happened blew everyone’s minds. Not only did Trump not abandon the mission, he completed it. He delivered a Supreme Court ready and willing to strike down Roe and Casey. Barring a last-minute switch by Kavanaugh, it will do just that, this summer.
That’s the end of anyone eating into Trump’s support among white evangelical Christians or conservative Catholics, for that matter. Mike Pence’s campaign, for instance, is officially over. Mr. Pence has a following in the white evangelical community and was given credit for helping hold Trump to his campaign promises to “the religious right.”
But helping and leading are two different things. Trump was the one who made the Court appointments. Trump was the one who (along with his now-sworn enemy Mitch McConnell) got them confirmed in the U.S. Senate. Trump was the one who took the thrashing from the mainstream media for the appointments.
That will not be forgotten, ever. One thing about white evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics is that they reward loyalty with loyalty. During George W. Bush’s presidency, the one constituency that stuck with him through thick and thin was the evangelical community. If Trump gets in trouble down the road in 2023 or 2024, they will stand by him. As important, they won’t entertain the idea of someone else being their presidential nominee. That campaign ended on Tuesday. Trump won in a landslide. [Some of the emphasis added.]
10. We really don’t know the impact on the midterms yet, and won’t for a while – certainly not until, again, we see what the actual ruling says.
11. Inflation will matter more.
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ESSENTIAL READING:
None.
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LEDES
Politico: New White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
Axios: Roe.
Punchbowl News: Speaker Pelosi supports a House staff pay raise.