THE STATE OF DONALD TRUMP
President, candidate, TV performer, Republican Party leader, and media expert…
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There are Trump supporters who think their candidate can’t win.
There are Trump supporters who think their candidate might win.
There are Trump supporters who think their candidate will win.
Let’s appreciate the views of all three groups.
And let’s Saturday snapshot the state of the nation the incumbent is asking to govern for four more years and the state of his campaign.
Stipulating that it is very hard for any candidate trailing in the polls to get favorable coverage from the poll-driven, poll-obsessed media, here is how things look factually for Donald Trump on this fall weekend.
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DONALD TRUMP’S GOVERNMENT
The U.S. budget deficit tripled to a record $3.1 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 as the government battled the global coronavirus pandemic that plunged the country into a recession, has taken more than 217,000 American lives and thrown millions out of work.
As a share of economic output, the budget gap in fiscal year 2020 hit roughly 16.1%, the largest since 1945, the Treasury Department said Friday, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II.
Federal debt totaled 102% of gross domestic product, the first time it has exceeded the size of the economy for the full fiscal year in more than 70 years….. (Wall Street Journal)
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Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer on Friday dashed prospects for a coronavirus vaccine being approved before the election with an open letter explaining the company would not apply for regulatory clearance for its vaccine candidate until the third week of November at the earliest. (Washington Post)
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The health department’s top lawyer is warning in an internal memo that President Donald Trump's plan to give seniors $200 discount cards to buy prescription drugs could violate election law, according to three officials with knowledge of those legal concerns.
The lawyer’s objection, coupled with his advice to seek approval from the Department of Justice, is a significant blow to Trump’s hope to promote the hastily devised plan before Election Day. (Politico)
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Rising coronavirus cases in key presidential battleground states a little more than two weeks before Election Day are the latest worry for election officials and voters fearing chaos or exposure to the virus at polling places despite months of planning.
The prospect of poll workers backing out at the last minute because they are infected, quarantined or scared of getting sick has local election officials in Midwest states such as Iowa and Wisconsin opening more early voting locations, recruiting backup workers and encouraging voters to plan for long lines and other inconveniences.
Confirmed virus cases and deaths are on the rise in the swing states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. (Associated Press)
HALPERIN SAYS: These are what the political pros call “wrong track material.”
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DONALD TRUMP’S CANARY IN THE COAL MINE
There are signs that the president, trailing by 11 points in the most recent WSJ/NBC News poll against Democratic nominee Joe Biden, is starting to lose his sway on Capitol Hill. Senate Republicans, previously wary of breaking with Mr. Trump due to his broad support in the party, are making clear they won’t be persuaded to support nearly $2 trillion in additional stimulus.
“You’ve got enough budget hawks in the Senate, you’ve got enough good, solid conservatives in the Senate that you’re not going to have much of an appetite for another $2.2 trillion in spending,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R., Tenn.), who reliably votes with Mr. Trump, said Friday, referring to the aid package passed by the House earlier this month. (Wall Street Journal)
HALPERIN SAYS: This is what inspires political pros to say, “If you’ve lost Marsha Blackburn….”
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DONALD TRUMP’S CLOSING MESSAGE
Try to make Joe Biden = Hillary Clinton:
“The Biden family is a criminal enterprise — Frankly it makes crooked Hillary Clinton look like an amateur…
“I’ll tell you what, it’s an organized crime family, as far as I’m concerned.”
On Friday afternoon, Trump smiled approvingly as a rally crowd in Ocala, Fla., chanted, “Lock him up!”
The same chant was reprised Friday night, at Trump’s rally in Macon, Ga. (New York Post)
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Cheer on limits on the ability to vote:
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Make appeals to female voters:
Republican Sen. David Perdue mocked Sen. Kamala Harris on Friday, derisively mispronouncing the Democratic vice presidential candidate's name during a campaign rally in Georgia.
“Kamala? Kamala? Kamala-mala-mala? I don’t know. Whatever,” Perdue (R-Ga.) said at a rally in Macon, just before President Donald Trump was set to take the stage. (Politico)
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As the law and order candidate, make the case on criminal justice from the left:
Trump released a scathing new ad on Friday attacking Biden’s record on race. Specifically, the ad seizes on Biden’s support for a criminal justice law that disproportionately punished people of color…
“He insulted us, jailed us, we must not elect him president,” the narrator declares. (Associated Press)
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Argue, “He’s fighting for you”:
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Suggest: “MAGA IS UNSTOPPABLE”:
HALPERIN SAYS: Political pros would call this “more kitchen sink than beautiful souffle (or even Iowa’s newly-crowned tenderloin champion).”
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DONALD TRUMP’S CLOSING TOP SURROGATE
Frustration about Giuliani in the West Wing has long run rampant, with those around the president warily watching Giuliani’s efforts to bring down the Bidens and fearful they could boomerang back on the president….
Though Trump associates believe a case can be made that Hunter enriched himself by selling access to his father, they fear that Giuliani’s lack of credibility will cause the allegations to implode. (Associated Press)
HALPERIN SAYS: The Rudy arc here over the final days is going to be something to behold.
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DONALD TRUMP’S RAISNG AND SPENDING SITUATION
[T]he president’s campaign released new numbers suggesting he’s likely the first incumbent president to face a fundraising disadvantage in the modern era.
Trump’s campaign, along with the Republican National Committee and associated groups, raised $247.8 million in September, well short of the $383 million raised by Biden and the Democratic National Committee. To open October, the Trump effort officially had $251.4 million in the bank, according to a campaign spokesman, compared with $432 million for Biden….
Biden and his allies are outspending Trump and his allies on paid advertising more than 2 to 1 through Election Day, according to the advertising tracking firm Kantar/CMAG. (Associated Press)
HALPERIN SAYS: If the president were watching more TV in battleground states, he would be very upset at what he saw. As he would say, he’s getting KILLED.
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DONALD TRUMP’S EARLY VOTE STANDING
More than 22 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2020 election, a record-shattering avalanche of early votes driven both by Democratic enthusiasm and a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes….
So far the turnout has been lopsided, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by a 2-1 ratio in the 42 states included in The Associated Press count.
HALPERIN SAYS: Newsfolks continue to Google to find something bigger than “tsunami” (just in case).
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DONALD TRUMP’S PATH TO 270
His Electoral College paths are now neither numerous nor easy.
Saturday, he is in Muskegon, Michigan for “remarks on Supporting the American Way of Life “ and Janesville, Wisconsin for “remarks on Supporting Law Enforcement.”
He can eek out a victory without those two states, but he would need Arizona (and others where he is behind) to pull that off.
Politico: “I’ve never seen a Republican president with numbers like this in Arizona,” said a person close to the Trump campaign, describing the latest statewide polls as foreboding.
HALPERIN SAYS: Trump’s remaining route is pretty clear, and, again, not currently easy or likely. Win Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Iowa – and then some combination of 2 or 3 of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
The former cluster is still plausible, but the latter would require a combination of a big debate win, Comey-esque intervention, luck, and 10,000 marbles.
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DONALD TRUMP’S FRIDAY CODA ON THE CURRENT STATE OF HIS REELECTION PROSPECTS
“I shouldn’t joke because you know what? Running against the worst candidate in the history of presidential politics puts pressure on me. Can you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country? I don’t know.”
HALPERIN SAYS: Here is the Upper West Side thought bubble:
PS: There is glee in the Dominant Media over the dueling Biden-Trump town hall ratings.
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IF YOU BELIEVE TRUMP’S CHANCES DEPEND ON HUNTER BIDEN’S PAST
David Ignatius’ column is essential reading.
It is based in part on his reporting with an unnamed consultant who allegedly had extensive dealings with Hunter regarding Burisma.
The paragraph Team Biden and Biden-friendly media will seize on:
An Eastern European expert in digital forensics who has examined some of the Ukrainian documents leaked to the New York Post told me he found anomalies — such as American-style capitalization of the names of ministries — that suggest fakery.
The paragraph Team Trump and Trump-friendly media will seize on:
[Hunter] Biden responded poignantly about his need for income, the consultant recalls. “My mom and dad don’t have money. Beau [Hunter’s brother, now deceased] will run for office. I have to make money for the family.” Biden said he planned to join Burisma as a director. Family friends say he was struggling with a drug problem at that time, and his judgment was erratic.
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The Big 4.2 - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona - Early Voting Began October 7th
* U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kelly raises $39M as opponent Sen. McSally takes in $23M during Q3. (Arizona Daily Star)
* State health dept. allowing 1.2K fans to attend Seahawks-Cardinals game Oct. 25th, season ticket holders by seniority get first dibs, masks required. (KSAZ FOX10)
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Michigan - Early Voting Began September 24th
* State appeals court rules mail-in ballots must be returned by 8:00pm Nov. 3rd, overturning lower court decision; additionally 3rd parties now cannot help residents with collection, delivery. (The Detroit News)
* Gov. Whitmer vetoes GOP voter fraud bill, saying it would 'muddy…waters' & 'likely confuse' those casting ballots. (WXMI FOX17)
* 'There is no place for hate in America,' Biden tells supporters during Oakland County campaign event promoting building upon ACA. (The Detroit News)
* Wolverine State bans open carry of firearms at polls Nov. 3rd. (WXYZ ABC7)
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Nebraska-2 - Early Voting Began October 5th
* Gov. Ricketts reinstates public COVID restrictions which mostly limit gatherings, mask mandate excluded. (Omaha World-Herald)
* Online voter registration ends in Cornhusker State, in-person registration available until Oct. 23rd at county election offices. (KHGI NTV-ABC)
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Wisconsin - Early Voting Begins October 20th - (varies by county)
* Madison installs 14 secure ballot drop boxes for voters’ convenience. (Wisconsin State Journal)
* Sen. Elizabeth Warren stumping for Biden campaign Saturday in Madison, will be joined by Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Lt. Gov. Barnes, Milwaukee Mayor Barrett, others. (WKOW ABC27)
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TOP STORIES – by Brian P. Nadeau
Sports: Emulating 2004 Boston Red Sox 0-3 comeback, Houston Astros beat TB Rays tying ALCS 3-3, Game 7 Saturday 8:37ET.
Business: Gun makers’ shares rise as Biden gains over Trump.
Entertainment: Day after Star Trek: Discovery Season 3 premier, CBS All Access announces Season 4 production begins Nov. 2nd.
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Correction: Friday I typed “2028” when I meant “2018.”
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Please send all inquiries to markhalperintalk@gmail.com