Among the life preservers that worried Democrats are clinging to when it comes to Biden-Trump are these two:
1. Nikki Haley voters telling exit pollsters they won’t vote for Donald Trump in the fall.
2. Republican voters saying they won’t support Trump if he is convicted of a felony before Election Day.
For a conversation like no other about those two suppositions and more, I strongly recommend you watch this Thursday 2WAY episode with leading pollsters Mark Mellman and Whit Ayres:
Whether you are a pro or non-pro when it comes to polling, I believe you will find this discussion sophisticated and/but very clear.
Spoiler alert: Both pollsters, a Democrat and a Republican, believe those poll results above should be as reassuring to Democrats as a Bob Uecker promise that he has gotten you great seats to a Taylor Swift concert in Milwaukee.
Also covered: the latest battleground state polling suggesting a Trump lead; the White House’s efforts to address voter concerns about the president’s mental acuity; the Trump popular vote ceiling versus the Biden popular vote ceiling; and the challenges of polling right now.
In this episode, in addition, we talk about the intersection between the legal and the political regarding the latest on Trump’s court cases.
In the coming days in the daily Wide World of News newsletter exclusively for Concierge Coverage members, I will be writing about an important recent change in the state of the race, with a rise in the bullishness of Republicans (even anti-Trump Republicans) on the prospect of a fall victory by the Maven of Mar-a-Lago – and a roughly commensurate increase in the level of concern in some Democratic quarters that Biden will lose.
In talking to all manner of Democrats and Republicans around the country this week, there is no doubt that Republican optimism about the race is higher than Democratic pessimism – but the two lines are getting closer to crossing.
I’m in the process of breaking down the different categories of states of mind within each camp, where there are just a handful of different Republican groups, but an increasing number of branches on the Democratic tree, ranging from those who are extremely pessimistic to those who continue to have faith that, in the end, Biden will pull it out, that America will simply not send Trump back to the Oval Office.
I continue to believe that this general type of polling result is the single biggest threat to Biden’s reelection:
If you want to get daily access to my writing and enjoy the other benefits of Wide World of News Concierge Coverage, please consider becoming a member today – in time to also join our salon conversation on Super Tuesday via Zoom.
You can learn about all the benefits and how to become a member here.
Mark