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The truth can be obvious.
The truth can be obscure.
The truth can be wrong.
But/and here are some things I believe to be true.
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THINGS THAT ARE TRUE ABOUT RON DESANTIS â24
No one knows how he will perform in the rituals and voter gauntlets of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
His early life is completely unvetted by the national media.
His folks have all of the confidence of Team Bush â00 -- and none of the humility.
Having your spouse as your top political adviser is both not uncommon and not foolproof.
Heâs going to face incoming attacks from the his other Republican rivals as much as he is from Trump.
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THINGS THAT ARE TRUE ABOUT JOE BIDEN â24
His political apparatus has done more to game out every aspect of the nomination process than you can imagine.
Team Biden doesnât want Kamala Harris to be the partyâs presidential nominee in 2024 any more than âyouâ do.
Team Biden expects to have an even more sizeable advantage with the Dominant Media than it did in 2020, no matter who the Republicans nominate.
Team Biden has built solid ties to every section of the party that it needs (donors, early staters, interest groups, elected officials).
The Rose Garden will be 2024âs version of the Delaware basement.
Like Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama, the incumbent canât win an up-or-down referendum for reelection, but he sure as heck can get four more years when compared to the alternative tk.
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THINGS THAT ARE TRUE ABOUT DONALD TRUMP â24
He has a more experienced top team, to whom he actually listens, than in his two previous runs.
If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he could), he will consolidate a lot of Team Red around him much faster than the Dominant Media realizes.
His legal eagles can push off the start of any criminal trial until well after the early nominating contests â and a conviction until after Election Day.
At some point, Melania needs to weigh in.
If Trump skips the RNC debates, he puts DeSantis in a complicated position.
It will be a very dangerous (but not dispositive) sign for him if he is badly outraised by DeSantis in (a) small-dollar donations; (b) bundling; (c) Super PAC money raised.
He has shown a level of discipline in the last two months that could have major implications for the nomination fight and the general election.
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THINGS THAT ARE TRUE ABOUT THE OTHER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS â24
The right question is not âWho among them can raise more than $17 million in hard dollars by Christmas?â â the right question is âWho among them can run an effective, creative campaign having raised less than $17 million in hard dollars by Christmas?â
The major donors, the other incumbent governors, and many U.S. Senators, including Leader McConnell, are going to be open to shopping among them for a backup, since there is no great love for either King Kong or Godzilla.
None of them have amazing game on social media (yet), but/and if they somehow did, it would be an extraordinary differentiator.
They are not running for VP â they are running in case King Kong collapses and Godzilla has a glass jaw (two reasonable probabilities!).
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THINGS THAT ARE TRUE ABOUT THE MEDIA â24
Some serious news organization should invest a lot of resources into an objective story (which by definition would be positive) about how Ron DeSantis won reelection so overwhelmingly, including his performance with non-white voters and in Democratic-leaning areas â the kind of favorable story the Dominant Media would all be competing to do about, say, a rising Democratic star governor who turned a previously Purple state into a deep Blue one, effectively eviscerating the opposition party in the process.
Some serious news organization should invest a lot of resources into an objective story (which by definition would be negative) about how Ron DeSantisâs Florida Miracle has some Mirage elements in it, looking at the situation with schools, employment, COVID, health care, etc.
Serious news organizations should find clear standards for holding all presidential candidates accountable for their lies, focusing on quality much more than quantity (although not ignoring quantity) â and then maintain and execute on those clear standards from start to finish. This process should include Donald Trump, but should not be limited to Donald Trump.
There is little chance that President Biden will ever be asked by a reporter âWhy did you speak at a public event to a dead congresswoman?â or âWhat did you think your son Hunter was doing when he traveled to foreign countries with you on Air Force Two?â
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ESSENTIAL READING
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HALPERIN SAYS: Two-day story or paradigm shifter â we donât know yet.
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* Budget day for Team Biden, with a presidential unfurling in Philly â and a Wall Street Journal news lede that Anita Dunn herself would have blushed writing:
President Bidenâs budget blueprint will lay out plans to save hundreds of billions of dollars by seeking to lower drug prices, raising some business taxes, cracking down on fraud and cutting spending he sees as wasteful, according to White House officials.
HALPERIN SAYS: As Iâve written this week already, the PR battle over spending, deficits, debt, and debt ceiling heavily favors the Democrats for all sorts of reasons, not least of which is that Republicans donât even seem to understand what they are up against, let alone have the people, plans, and consensus to counteract a possible rout. For just one example, consume Henry Olsenâs Washington Post essential reading column on what the party should do on Medicare. Olsen, a civilian, is miles ahead of the GOPâs congressional and presidential wings in gaming this all out.
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* Rich Lowry, in writing about Ronald Reaganâs place in the party now, says this smart stuff about King Kong versus Godzilla:
Trump wants to tempt DeSantis to try follow him in his âMaga More Than Everâ messaging, but the governor can only go so far down this path. Heâs not going to peel off enough Trump voters to beat Trump. To win the nomination, DeSantis is going to need to win over a segment of Trump populists at the same time he locks down Republican voters who like Reagan more than Trump. (He presumably reached these type of voters with his speech to a packed auditorium at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library while Trump was at CPAC.)
The Trump forces are going to try to make DeSantisâ roots in the party of Reagan disqualifying. Instead, played correctly, it can be a strength.
HALPERIN SAYS: Remember, although most of the focus in punditry is on Trumpâs ceiling, DeSantis has a ceiling too (we just donât know how high/low it isâŚ.).
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* Karl Rove on the Senate â24 battlefield, with an emphasis on (naturally) candidate quality and fundraising.
HALPERIN SAYS: Despite the tough terrain for Team Blue, they could still hold the majority.
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* The Washington Post account of a Capitol Hill hearing featuring an epic war of words between a Senator and the head of the Teamsters will spin your head, rattle your dentures, and send you searching for the video.
HALPERIN SAYS: WOW.
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CORRECTION
In Wednesdayâs editions, as several gourmet readers pointed out, I confused âprotein styleâ with âanimal styleâ in using an In-N-Out metaphor. I regret the error, despite this Google hit:
