There is no doubt that Monday’s White House meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy (and their teams) is the main event in determining the course of the debt and deficit negotiations.
On substance, symbolism, and politics, the Delawarean and the Californian are going to have to put the contours of a very solid foundation in place for the crisis to be averted.
The odds are 61% that they come out of their parley with the outlines of an agreement that propels official Washington to the next steps – if not, necessarily, to a deal that can pass both chambers.
And/but it is vital to remember that the president and the speaker are not the only players you should list on your scorecard. Here are some of the other key actors:
1. TREASURY SECRETARY JANET YELLEN
The softspoken Cabinet big wears at least three hats in this drama. First, she needs to help keep markets and other outside stakeholders calm – vital for an administration that has no single leading, credible go-to figure on the economy (the Bob Rubin or Norman Schwarzkopf role). Second, she is expected to update the world on the X-date this week (and I am still betting on a last-minute deadline extension, despite her suggesting otherwise on “Meet the Press”). And, third, if there is a breach of the debt ceiling, the Secretary can in fact unofficially prioritize payment decisions for at least a bit, which might satisfy markets (a position that Yellen seemed to endorse Sunday morning and which the Wall Street Journal ed board suggests would lead to a situation more like a brief government shutdown than the prelude to a global depression).
2. CHUCK SCHUMER, MITCH MCONNELL, AND HAKEEM JEFFRIES
Although the congressional leaders have chosen to be potted plants in the fiscal talks so far, their duties would expand promptly and dramatically if there is a Biden-McCarthy deal. Each man would have a role in working out the devilish details; coordinating with the White House and the speaker’s office in rounding up votes; keeping their flocks from flocking en masse against the pact; and engaging with the media.
3. DONALD J. TRUMP
No matter what is in any Biden-McCarthy package, Trump will almost certainly be rhetorically against it. How hard he whips in opposition won’t matter in the Senate, but it could be decisive in the House.
4. WHOEVER IS IN CHARGE OF THE JOINT WHIP OPERATION FOR THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE SPEAKER
The complexity in the House of getting the necessary majority by drawing on two pots of votes will be magnified by the fact that any final deal will have elements thoroughly objectionable to both parties’ bases. Counting, courting, and cajoling effectively will involve a measure of trust and leaps of faith not heretofore seen between these two camps.
5. THE MARKETS
Are they patient, fickle, decisive, trusting, bored, or something else this week?
ESSENTIAL READING:
Ezra Klein channels the White House a bit in explaining why liberals should quickly fall out of love with the 14A non-solution, which Klein argues is way too risky and a bad bet:
[I]f the administration declares the debt ceiling unconstitutional, only to have the Supreme Court declare the maneuver unconstitutional, then Biden owns the market chaos that would follow. Who will voters blame in that scenario? Republicans, who say they just wanted to negotiate over the budget, as is tradition? Or Biden, who did something no other president had done and failed?
Right now, at last, the positions are clear. The White House is open to budget negotiations but opposed to debt ceiling brinkmanship. Republicans are the ones threatening default if their demands are not met. They are pulling the pin on this grenade, in full view of the American people. Biden should think carefully before taking the risk of snatching it out of their hands and holding it himself.
MY SUNDAY TWEET FOR HISTORY:
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2024
Tim Scott enters the presidential fray today and Ron DeSantis is expected to join later in the week.
No matter how you slice things, the Sunshine State topper remains the second-most-likely Republican nominee.
There are large segments of the GOP Establishment (including and especially among those in the Stop Trump wing of the party) who would like Scott to be the choice and the next president, exemplified by the expected presence of Senate leadership guy John Thune at the Scott kickoff rally in South Carolina.
Tim Scott is really really really well liked by his colleagues, and liked a lot by the media, which is part of why he will get shared billing this week with DeSantis in campaign coverage (that will likely be overshadowed in the media minds by the debt ceiling drama).
Scott will follow his announcement with travel to Iowa and New Hampshire later in the week, potentially stepping on the DeSantis launch in a way.
Because he’s Tim Scott, it is very hard for him to get bad coverage at this phase of his race, even though his poll standing is negligible and he has the same theory of the case of how to win the nomination as every other candidate not named “Trump” or “DeSantis” – count on King King knocking out Godzilla (or vice versa) in the early states and then becoming the pick-up-the-pieces consensus alternative for large numbers of elites, voters, and reporters by Super Tuesday.
Here are some of the Big Questions facing Team DeSantis, besides how to deal with the Scott competition:
1. How much does the announcement show overall wow folks?
2. Is the announcement video incredible?
3. Are the identities of his bundler team (how many Trump defectors, for instance?) and the amount they raise breathtaking and impressive to those who track such things?
4. How robust is his low-dollar capacity?
5. Does the media give any due to the Florida Miracle – or is all the coverage about Florida controversies?
6. Do his questionable retail campaign skills become a dominant meme, propelled by the Iron Triangle of C-SPAN cameras, the Trump operation, and social media?
7. Is the coverage of Casey DeSantis more like what was in that negative Politico profile or in this fawning New York Post piece?
8. Can Team DeSantis thrive by suddenly making itself helpful to the Dominant Media, as per this smart Semafor look?
9. Does the candidate excite and surprise The Filter in ways meaningful and robust?
10. Does Ron DeSantis, after the book tour and the early state travel already done and covered, actually get two more full apple bites (this week and next) for his “official” launch?
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BIDEN CORNER
As President Joe Biden embarks on his reelection campaign, just 33% of American adults say they approve of his handling of the economy and only 24% say national economic conditions are in good shape, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
* Part of me hopes this video of President Biden is a deepfake, and part of me doesn’t.
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CORRECTION: I had basically assured you all that the Celtics would make the NBA Finals. New England folks from Hammond, Maine to Shippan Point, Connecticut join me in regretting the error.
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