The What Ifs
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I am paid to see around corners.
My role models are Bobby Orr and Johan Cruyff; I try to figure out what will happen next, rather than just dwell on what’s happening now.
Here are 10 developments that could occur before you know it, any of which could disrupt our current shared sense of where we are headed in the Wide World of News jalopy.
1. What if Ukraine starts to win the war on the ground?
The New York Times suggests that that could happen.
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2. (Alternatively) What if Russia starts to decisively win the war on the ground, in part by the mass killings of civilians?
The latest, via the Associated Press:
Ukrainian authorities struggled to determine the fate of hundreds of civilians who had been sheltering in a theater smashed by a Russian airstrike in the besieged city of Mariupol as officials said Russian artillery Thursday destroyed more civilian buildings in another frontline city.
3. What if Putin uses WMD or attacks a blade of NATO grass?
War criminal, indeed.
4. What if the Chinese, spurred on by American carrots (or effectively threatened by sticks), decide they want to end the war in Ukraine?
The AP on the current terms of the Sino-U.S. relationship.
5. What if Joe Biden performs so brilliantly that he leads a world Coalition of the Willing in a decisive defeat of Putin?
These words of Karl Rove could become common on the right, perhaps revolutionizing perceptions of the Biden presidency:
To his credit, Mr. Biden has handled the crisis well, doing many of the right things, including working closely with NATO allies and supporting crushing sanctions against Russia.
6. What if Putin loses the war and expects international business interests to come back to Moscow – and expects his life and his nation’s life to go back to “normal”?
Essential reading: Dan Henninger has about a dozen brilliant lines in his column grappling with what has changed, how, why, and what the implications are of the war so far:
Within three weeks, virtually all the world’s democratic nations and peoples have committed to repelling Russia’s invasion. The size, speed and depth of the response is almost incomprehensible.
7. What if the Iran nuclear deal is in fact consummated?
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8. What if Joe Biden gets COVID?
He sure has been around a lot of infected people lately.
9. What if Hunter Biden gets indicted?
The New York Times has many new details in one of the first Dominant Media attempts to explore the reality that the president’s son is under criminal investigation for possible activities potentially related to his father’s public office.
10. What if Andrew Cuomo runs for governor of New York this year?
It is becoming the base case.
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CAMPAIGN 2024
* Essential reading: Tom Edsall with one of the most important pieces written to date about the prospects of a DeSantis presidential campaign, in a column that simultaneously overstates and understates the Florida topper’s political strength.
* Would you pay $12,500 to have dinner with the Clintons at their home?
