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ACCOUNTING
ITEM:
[T]he story of his bid to regain the presidency is likely to be defined by his attempts to stave off criminal liability for things he did the last time he occupied the White House.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: For once, I don’t have a strong opinion – I can’t decide who is right, Ruth Marcus or the Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan.
The verdict — that Trump subjected Carroll to sexual abuse and then defamed her when he called her claims a “hoax” and “complete con job” — will not change minds. Still, it is an ineradicable part of the record, perhaps only the beginning of a legal system holding Trump responsible for his actions, however belatedly….
Will this verdict do anything to stop him? Probably not. This isn’t a criminal conviction. The jury had to decide to credit Carroll’s account by only a preponderance of the evidence — not the higher criminal standard of beyond a reasonable doubt. Trump could have raped E. Jean Carroll in the middle of Fifth Avenue and his true believers wouldn’t care. The rest of us have long known who he is and what he is capable of….
Justice is dispensed in small, imperfect doses. A single teaspoonful will not cure the disease. But it is a start.
When Alvin L. Bragg secured the indictment of former President Donald J. Trump, it galvanized Trump supporters. Allies of his Republican rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, mark that indictment as the moment that Mr. Trump sped away from his nearest opponent in the polls.
Nobody around Mr. Trump is making a prediction publicly or privately that there will be a similar effect after a jury on Tuesday in the lawsuit brought by E. Jean Carroll found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation.
The price that Mr. Trump was ordered by the jury to pay his accuser, Ms. Carroll, was $5 million, in a verdict he has promised to appeal. But whether he pays any political price at all is unclear. Mr. Trump was said to be furious about the verdict, and questioning the various decisions that were made by his team in the defense. Far from letting up on Ms. Carroll, his team plans to aggressively attack her claims and tether her to Democrats.
There is no world in which the result of that civil trial was a positive development for the project he is most focused on: the presidential campaign for which he remains the Republican front-runner.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: The verdict likely won’t help Trump in the short-term (unlike the Bragg indictment); it likely won’t hurt Trump in the short-term (unlike the “Access Hollywood” tape); and as for the general election, you should resist the urge to say anything but it’s too soon to say.
As for America and the presidency, please note that this is, at a minimum, both a sad and satisfying day, depending on the citizen. As in shorter Wall Street Journal ed board: It should matter, but it probably won’t.
Also, note that this happened BEFORE the verdict, which, for some voters, will matter more than the jury’s decision:
Former President Donald Trump has the support of his wife Melania in his reelection campaign, she says, after the former first lady has rarely been seen at her husband’s campaign events.
“He has my support, and we look forward to restoring hope for the future and leading America with love and strength,” Melania Trump told Fox News in an interview published Tuesday.
In conclusion: If, someday, Donald Trump as the Republican nominee loses the general election, it will likely be because of a cap on his support from suburban voters – and this verdict will have contributed to that (along with 108 other things).
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ANSWERING
ITEM:
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: I will watch the highlights on Twitter.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: It’s not ALL about the verdict, but it’s now a lot about the verdict. Can Team Trump coach its star player to remember the words of the Associated Press:
Trump historically has not reacted well when pressed on stage about his behavior toward women, most notably during the first Republican presidential debate of 2015, when he sparred with then-Fox News host Megyn Kelly. He later said she had “blood coming out of her wherever” when she was questioning him.
****
CONFRONTING
ITEM:
The political action committee of former Representative Liz Cheney began broadcasting an attack on Donald J. Trump’s fitness for office on Tuesday in the key state of New Hampshire, using her narration to accuse the former president of the greatest “dereliction of duty” in American presidential history.
It is unclear whether the advertisement by Ms. Cheney’s leadership PAC, The Great Task, is another hint that she may run for president or a stand-alone effort to soften Mr. Trump’s support in the state that will hold the first Republican primary in February. Ms. Cheney’s memoir, “Oath and Honor,” will publish in November, and she has said she will hold back any announcements until then.
But at this political moment, when Mr. Trump’s rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 have been reluctant to attack the front-runner, Ms. Cheney has fired an opening salvo, demanding that Republican voters rebuff the former president’s effort to return to power.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: She’s running for president, I guess.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: What he said:
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NEGOTIATING/NOT NEGOTIATING
ITEM: The fiscal talks at the White House yield conflict and/but a decision to talk more at the staff and principals level.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Obviously, they will work it out in the end.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: The biggest variables are (1) the real X date; (2) when the market freakouts begin; (3) can there be trust built between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy – but also between McCarthy and Chuck Schumer. The development of that latter relationship is more important than folks realize. Without trust (and a bicameral, bipartisan joint whip operation) this deal will never get done – and we will be in an endless loop of what President Biden called “a lot of politics, posturing and gamesmanship” leading to unintentional and catastrophic default.
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MISSING
ITEM:
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: The Veep must have been busy at that time.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: C’mon, man, at least pull the chair.
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PROBING
ITEM:
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer declared that President Biden will face a “judgment day” on Wednesday when his panel releases financial documents that purportedly will show “wire transfers from adversaries around the world” going to the commander in chief’s family members.
“Tomorrow, for the first time, the American people are gonna see actual bank records that show wire transfers from adversaries around the world into a web of LLCs that were owned or controlled by the Bidens and then those transfers were made back into the Biden family accounts,” the Kentucky Republican teased on Fox News’ “Jesse Watters Primetime” on Tuesday.
Live here at 9am ET:
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Comer picked a heck of a news cycle to try to break through.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: As long as Comer continues to cater to a Red sensibility, he will have more trouble breaking through and/but follow the money on this one.
****
WORKING
ITEM:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s office disclosed Tuesday that she is returning to Washington following an absence of more than two months in which the oldest member of Congress faced calls from within her own party to resign.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: It all depends on how she votes.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: It all depends on what happens when Manu gets her in an unguarded hallway moment.
****
INDICTING
ITEM:
Federal prosecutors have filed criminal charges against Rep. George Santos, the embattled New York congressman who assumed office this year after lying about his biography during his campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: This is the end.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: This is the beginning of the end, but, yes, it is the end.
****
ADDICTING
ITEM: The new Bruce Mehlman slides are out now!
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: What a great graphic artist he has!
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Consume the whole thing. It it will tell you more about the upcoming legislative and political and social climate than anything else you can read this week.