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TO: JRB
FROM: Ron Klain
DATE: March 9, 2022
RE: Good news/bad news
Everywhere we look, Mr. President, there is good news and bad news. I know you are both an eternal optimist and a lover of Yeats, Joyce, and Heaney, so let me run through where we are with the up and the down:
COALITION OF THE WILLING
GOOD NEWS: You, Tony, and Jake have been masterful, pulling off secret deals in every hemisphere and on every continent that would make James A. Baker 3d envious. And Bush/Baker never had Coke and Pepsi (and Starbucks!) on their team.
I know you think no one is giving you credit, but the credit is starting. Look at Frank Foer’s Atlantic piece, for instance:
Joe Biden hasn’t received the full credit he deserves for his statecraft during this crisis, because he has pursued a policy of self-effacement. Rather than touting his accomplishments in mobilizing a unified global response to the invasion, he has portrayed the stringent sanctions as the triumph of an alliance. By carefully limiting his own public role—and letting France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz take turns as the lead faces of NATO—he has left Vladimir Putin with little opportunity to portray the conflict as a standoff with the United States, a narrative that the Russian leader would clearly prefer. He’s shown how to wield American leadership in the face of deep European ambivalence about its exercise.
And David Ignatius’ essential reading column on his Travels With Milley includes this:
Though it’s largely invisible to the public, the United States has moved an astonishing military presence forward in Europe, from a mere 200 in Hungary and 350 in Bulgaria to 2,500 in the Baltic states, 10,000 in Poland and 38,500 in Germany — forces in 17 countries, bolstered by 11,000 in ships at sea. It’s a forbidding display of force.
BAD NEWS: The (let’s be honest…) humiliating fact that the Saudis and Emirates refused to take your phone calls leaking out isn’t great; this confusion with Poland over the MiG-29 fighter planes is suboptimal; no matter how much pre-departure briefing the Veep gets, this trip to Poland is going to be a challenge; and Zelensky just keeps dinging us for not being willing to start World War III.
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CHINA
GOOD NEWS: They might not be in the coalition of the willing, but many of Putin’s miscalculations are impacting how China sees this conflict.
Look at what Asia Nikkei is reporting:
China appears to be shifting its tone on the war in Ukraine, as Beijing counts the costs of defending a Russian ally accused of war crimes and braces for the economic fallout from Western-led sanctions.
On Tuesday, President Xi Jinping told his French and German counterparts that Beijing was ready to work with the international community to "prevent the tense situation from escalating, or even running out of control," in his strongest comments yet on the two-week-old invasion.
Hinting at China's growing alarm over Russia's invasion, Xi also called for "maximum restraint to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis," as the number of civilian casualties mount, including children.
And this might be the most significant Twitter thread of the entire war:
BAD NEWS: We still don’t have an actual China policy – and Beijing is scheming to become the winner of the war, at least on economics.
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SECRET TALKS WITH FOES
GOOD NEWS: We got those two Americans freed from Venezuela via talks with Maduro, and your late-night statement was pure Uncle Joe emotion that we hope will distract the media from the overall talks. The silver lining of Putin’s aggression is the bazaar is open around the world for the kind of wheeling and dealing you always pined for when you wanted to be Secretary of State. This track is working (fingers crossed).
BAD NEWS: Rob Malley is good, but this is a dangerous game, from the Wall Street Journal:
The U.S. envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, has suggested that securing the nuclear pact is unlikely unless Tehran frees four U.S. citizens, including an Iranian-American father and son, Baquer and Siamak Namazi, whom Washington says Tehran is holding hostage. But Mr. Malley has always insisted that the negotiation over the citizens is separate from the nuclear talks.
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THE RUSSIAN OIL BAN
GOOD NEWS: We seemed to have successfully run to the front of the parade, especially since the Senate likely won’t act.
BAD NEWS: We became one of those administrations that caves on a 70-30 issue when the Hill is screaming, even though we know this is the wrong policy, both politically and substantively. Let’s hope nobody reads this Twitter thread about how you got the Heisman from Speaker Pelosi:
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BLAMING PUTIN FOR HIGH GAS PRICES
GOOD NEWS: Celinda is with us!
“The good news is we now have a very specific reason for rising gas prices and a specific villain,” said Celinda Lake, who served as one of Biden’s top campaign pollsters in 2020 and currently polls for Biden-aligned groups. “Before, it was kind of ambiguous: What’s going on? Why are gas prices going up?” (Washington Post)
BAD NEWS: The comms folks did not love this soundbite from you yesterday:
"Can't do much right now ...Russia is responsible."
As we try to craft your image as a “strong” leader, “can’t do much right now” is not the best look.
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MIDTERMS
GOOD NEWS: NRP had your job approval up, and it all starts with that to calm the horses at the Democratic House meeting in Philadelphia, where you are speaking Friday. Thanks to Putin, that will now be a pep rally.
BAD NEWS: We are still the Mommy Party, and, as the world knows (and Al Gore will tell you) based on Florida 2000 and the 2002 midterms, I am no Jim Baker when it comes to ruthless deployment of facts on the ground or of national security for political gain.
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CAPITOL HILL AGENDA
GOOD NEWS: We got a leadership deal for a CR and a budget a few hours ago, the post office has been saved, the coalition to get the China bill passed is rocking.
BAD NEWS: I think we need to think about cutting loose Sarah Bloom Raskin to get the other folks confirmed for the Fed.
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TOM FRIEDMAN’S COLUMN
GOOD NEWS:
[Putin] completely underestimated President Biden’s ability to galvanize a global economic and military coalition to enable Ukrainians to stand and fight and to devastate Russia at home — the most effective U.S. coalition-building effort since George H.W. Bush made Saddam Hussein pay for his folly of seizing Kuwait. And he completely underestimated the ability of companies and individuals all over the world to participate in, and amplify, economic sanctions on Russia — far beyond anything governments initiated or mandated.
BAD NEWS:
In the coming weeks it will become more and more obvious that our biggest problem with Putin in Ukraine is that he will refuse to lose early and small, and the only other outcome is that he will lose big and late. But because this is solely his war and he cannot admit defeat, he could keep doubling down in Ukraine until … until he contemplates using a nuclear weapon.
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WHITE HOUSE PERSONNEL
GOOD NEWS: Thanks to the war, no one is clamoring to leave for now.
BAD NEWS: Everyone is exhausted.
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Overall, boss, not bad.
I will catch up with you after your workout.
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