"This War Will Not End Easily or Rapidly"
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President Biden leaves for Europe today on a trip that could prove to be (a) overwhelmed by facts on the ground in Ukraine; (b) anticlimactic; (c) an epic moment in world history that will conclusively demonstrate the steel and sure-handedness of the close-knit team of Biden-Blinken-Sullivan (a/k/a The Trio).
Or, of course, the voyage could prove to be some combination of the three scenarios.
Here, via the White House is the outline of the president’s ANNOUNCED schedule:
Thursday, March 24, 2022
The President will take a family photo with other leaders at NATO Headquarters.
The President will attend and deliver remarks at an extraordinary NATO Summit at NATO Headquarters to discuss ongoing deterrence and defense efforts in response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine. The President will reaffirm our ironclad commitment to the security of our NATO Allies.
The President will attend and deliver remarks at a G7 Leaders’ Meeting at NATO Headquarters to further discuss with other G7 Leaders the consequences we are imposing on Russia for its war of choice.
The President will hold a bilateral meeting with European Council President Charles Michel at the Europa building.
The President will join and deliver remarks at a European Council Summit at the Europa building to discuss our shared concerns about Ukraine, including transatlantic efforts to impose economic costs on Russia, provide humanitarian support to those affected by the violence, and address other challenges related to the conflict.
The President will hold a press conference at NATO Headquarters.
Friday, March 25, 2022
The President will travel to Warsaw, Poland.
Saturday, March 26, 2022
The President will hold a bilateral meeting with President Andrzej Duda of Poland in Warsaw, Poland. The President will discuss how the United States, alongside our Allies and partners, is responding to the humanitarian and human rights crisis that Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked war on Ukraine has created.
The President will deliver remarks on the united efforts of the free world to support the people of Ukraine, hold Russia accountable for its brutal war, and defend a future that is rooted in democratic principles.
The President will return to Washington, DC.
It is important to recognize on the eve of this trip that foreign policy elites are generally supportive of the job that The Trio (Biden/Blinken/Sullivan) has done.
This line, slipped into a column from a conservative Wall Street Journal writer, reflects the view of the bipartisan national security establishment, partisan sniping on Capitol Hill and public opinion polls in the U.S. notwithstanding:
Joe Biden, steeped in NATO and Cold War deterrence, has been handy in the moment…
So what happens on this trip that might enhance the confidence American elites (and U.S. allies…) have currently in the Leader of the Free World?
Politico curtain raises the perceived limits:
Presidents rarely travel overseas empty-handed but, to this point, the administration has been cagey as to what more deliverables Biden can or will provide. Officials said additional sanctions against Russia were expected along with a joint effort to crack down on Russia’s ability to evade those economic measures. There also is a promise of more funding and military equipment for Kyiv. But there are limits as to what Biden can do and how far he’s willing to go.
The New York Times curtain raises the possibilities (and the limits):
In Brussels on Thursday, Mr. Biden and other leaders will announce a “next phase” of military assistance to Ukraine, new plans to expand and enforce economic sanctions, and an effort to further bolster NATO defenses along the border with Russia, Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said on Tuesday….
In recent days, European leaders have come under increasing pressure from the U.S. administration as well as a core group of hard-liners within their ranks — including Poland and the smaller Baltic nations — to impose an oil embargo on Russia.
But ahead of the meetings on Thursday, European Union leaders did not appear to be heading toward such a move, which would hit Germany, the bloc’s de facto leader and biggest economy, hardest….
The Wall Street Journal curtain raises the first specific new deliverable, which could either be pure symbolism or a key straw on Putin’s back:
The Biden administration is preparing sanctions on most members of Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of parliament, as part of an effort to punish Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
President Biden intends to announce the sanctions on more than 300 members of the Russian State Duma as soon as Thursday during his trip to Europe, where he will meet with allies from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to formulate their next steps, according to U.S. officials and internal documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The sanctions will be announced in coordination with the European Union and members of the Group of Seven industrialized nations, U.S. officials said.
Back to that New York Times piece, which is in fact essential reading. After reviewing the full POTUS journey, it closes with this:
The most critical of the meetings, though, will be at NATO. For all the signs of unity, there is nervousness about Mr. Putin’s next move, and what happens if he makes use of chemical or biological weapons. And so far, officials say, while those possibilities have been debated, there is no unity on how the West would respond — a question Mr. Biden and his aides will have to take up, behind closed doors.
Finally, expect a lot of “good versus evil” rhetoric from NATO leaders (including Mr. Biden) over the next days. Tom Friedman’s column – also essential reading – looks at Putin and Xi (who keep extending their own power), and makes a very optimistic case for Joe Biden and (assuming Ukraine is saved) for the post-war New New New New World Order:
Sleepy Joe over in the corner has been playing Legos — methodically adding one piece, one ally, after another, bound together by shared values and threats, and has built a solid coalition to manage this crisis….
In short, for now at least, the messy democracies with their regular rotations in powers are outmaneuvering the presidents for life, who need to choke off all sources of dissent more than ever.
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Amazing:
Amazing if true:
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With attention rightly focused on Ukraine and Russia, there are all sorts of national security crises playing out largely off center stage. Here are just a few:
1. China’s whole role in everything.
2. India’s failure to side conclusively with good.
3. North Korea North Koreaing.
4. The Biden bollixing of Saudi and UAE.
And then there is Iran. If not for Putin, what is happening now with the nuclear talks would be a massive geopolitical and political story here in the U.S.
Politico rightly points out that many congressional Democrats are unhappy with the emerging deal, while John Bolton takes to the pages of the Washington Post to demand the Senate ratify any pact.
But it is Bret Stephens who you must read on this, first making the case why there is value in striking a bargain:
[A]t a minimum [this deal] will likely extend Iran’s “breakout time” — the time it needs to acquire sufficient enriched uranium for a bomb — from as little as three weeks to about six months, establish an intrusive nuclear-inspection regime, give future diplomacy more time to work, and forestall, for now, a nuclear crisis in the Middle East while the world’s attention is engaged elsewhere.
However, he closes with this:
The Biden administration urgently needs to telegraph strength. An Iran deal that leaves us even weaker and meeker than the previous deal accomplishes the opposite at a moment when we can’t afford another reversal.
The question of how to keep Iran in check (on both the nuclear and terror fronts) has bedeviled a string of Biden Oval Office predecessors.
Watch closely to see how The Trio handles this one; they have a lot of bandwidth and a lot of experience, but Putin has thrown a monkey wrench as big as the Ritz into the mix.
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To paraphrase and mangle a famous Bill Clinton quote, everything that is wrong with America can be seen in any high-profile congressional hearing.
Such as:
