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Joe Biden and Donald Trump surely will confront tumult and chaos in 2023 and 2024, but they mostly understand what they will face and how to deal with it.
Ron DeSantis and Kevin McCarthy, not so much.
Assuming both Biden and Trump are candidates for president, they have their teams, their messages, their strategies, their tactics, their policy preferences, their allies, their enemies, and their experience all lined up.
So when it comes to Washington legislative fights and the 2024 presidential campaign, the best prism through which to view our shared coming months is this:
Can DeSantis and McCarthy effectively line up their own teams, messages, strategies, tactics, policy preferences, allies, enemies, and experience?
For both the Floridian and the Californian, there will be good days and bad, twists and turns, moments of triumph and moments in the barrel.
Events will come at them both furious and fast, as the two men step up onto stages far bigger than they have ever played on, even in their august and vaunted careers to date.
And they will both need to calibrate all they do in comparison to and with contemplation about Biden and Trump, both of whom have their own troubles but, within their parties, great strength.
Biden has a stranglehold on the Democratic nomination (if he wants it) and a party almost 100% united around his policy goals and how to achieve them.
Trump has mystical and magical Red support, as epitomized by this shocking but not surprising poll result:
McCarthy actually had a pretty good Monday, with a well-researched and delivered speech trying to reframe the debt ceiling debate.
But he faces a lot of peril in fighting the two-front war against both the Democrats and his own troops. As the Wall Street Journal ed board correctly points out, the Speaker must hold the Conference together on a strategy for spending and debt, or they will all hang separately.
Here’s how the Associated Press frames matters:
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledged Monday to pass legislation to raise the nation’s debt ceiling — but only on condition of capping future federal spending increases at 1% — as he lashed out at President Joe Biden for refusing to engage in budget-cutting negotiations to prevent a debt crisis.
In a high-profile speech at the New York Stock Exchange, McCarthy, the Republican leader who was marking his 100th day as speaker, said the nation’s debt load is a “ticking time bomb” and Biden is “missing in action” as the deadline nears to raise the debt limit. But McCarthy’s own ability to bring his plan to passage as promised is highly uncertain.
In an essential reading piece, the Washington Post puts the meat on the bones of “highly uncertain”:
After 100 days in control, House Republicans have not reached consensus on how they will handle a vote on raising the debt ceiling — a critical piece of legislation that, if not passed, has global economic implications. They have not agreed on what their budget should, or should not, include, with various factions of the conference preparing their own versions. They are once again uncertain about when to vote on a major midterm promise — border security legislation — after not being able to secure support for its passage. And behind all of these public debates, skepticism and distrust is growing among GOP leaders.
The growing rancor and the lack of progress on major legislation have set the stage for months of tumult ahead for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), who has struggled to shepherd his narrowly divided conference as both moderate and extreme GOP members seek to leverage their power in the party’s four-vote majority….
It’s… increasingly likely that Republicans won’t unveil a budget before addressing the debt ceiling after leaders realized the challenges of compiling a document that would gain the support of the entire conference, according to multiple lawmakers.
My sense is that we won’t know if McCarthy is up to the task of surviving the policy, politics, and press battles until close to Christmas. For now, his strategic imperative is to just live to fight another day.
The verdict on DeSantis is likely to come sooner.
He faces a host of questions right now, even before he is an announced candidate, even before the pliant Florida legislature makes it possible for him to run for president without having to resign the governorship.
Team Trump has one boot hard on the accelerator and one pressed firmly on the Sunshine State topper’s neck, and the mavens of Mar-a-Lago are not letting up on either front. Ever.
Trump is surging in the polls, raising money, getting endorsements, building up a campaign team, and scheduling travel to early states:
DeSantis is scheduled to be in DC to meet with folks, including members of Congress today. He is waxing in what amounts to poetry for him about Bud Light. He is at war with Disney.
Ron DeSantis has won a lot of news cycles over the last couple of years by doing the exact same stuff he is doing now.
And/but he is also now in a mud fight with the King of the Pigs, something he has long avoided and which has never ended well for any Republican. And the donor and media scrutiny is a lot more intense and sophisticated.
What amazes Team Trump (and some neutral observers) is that DeSantis seems to think that he can consistently and effortlessly win the national news cycle with the same game plan he’s been using in Florida.
Just a look at how he has handled the abortion ban law since he signed it (and the reaction to it) tells you what you need to know. His mode would have won in Florida.
AA MVP and champion Ron DeSantis might turn out to be a Major League superstar.
But we don’t know that yet.
For a variety of reasons, Kevin McCarthy will never be Nancy Pelosi. But is he good enough, talented enough to win the next 18 or so months?
We don’t that yet, either.
Every day, we are going to get more data on both men and their performances.
Keep a log book.
This is going to be interesting.
Biden and Trump will largely take care of themselves.
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ESSENTIAL VIEWING
Watch these two members of Congress saying interesting things!
* Jeff Jackson on how some of his (unnamed) showboating colleagues behave in private:
* Nancy Mace (many Democrats’ favorite Republican lately) on Hunter Biden:
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ESSENTIAL READING
* The New York Times with a long profile of Susan Wiles, who has worked for Ron DeSantis and now works for Donald Trump, with a piece as accurate as it is interesting.
* Also in the Times, this heartbreaking and question-raising investigative piece:
Again and again, veteran government staffers and outside contractors told the Health and Human Services Department, including in reports that reached Secretary Xavier Becerra, that children appeared to be at risk. The Labor Department put out news releases noting an increase in child labor. Senior White House aides were shown evidence of exploitation, such as clusters of migrant children who had been found working with industrial equipment or caustic chemicals.