Trump Chooses His Path
Biden must choose his own....
At least three news organizations have new polls that show, pre-shooting, the presidential race to be very close.
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There are so many paradoxes and uncertainties in the Biden-Trump race this morning.
Trump was the one who was shot, but it is the Biden campaign that is beset by even more disarray and uncertainty than it was at this time yesterday.
Trump’s message and momentum going forward are clear; what Biden does next in terms of how (and, in some minds, whether) to continue his campaign is really a mystery.
Here are some of the new polls:
You think Joe Biden reads those polls, separate from the shooting, and says he must get out of the race?
Another mystery: Both sides private polling in the battleground states, pre-shooting, showed Biden in a significantly greater hole than the public polls do. What accounts for that? The methodology and quality of the polls? The screens for likely voters? Something else?
While several prominent people in both parties are not rising to the occasion, choosing social media tribal warfare over The Presumption of Grace, the Trumps have both put out statements today that are both wonderful expressions of unity and brilliant politics:
What does Joe Biden do?
The ball is very much in his court.
I have great, brilliant sources who say his hold on the nomination is now even more firm than it was pre-shooting – and/but I have great, brilliant sources who say that the shooting and Trump’s iconic reaction of strength make it even more imperative that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris stand aside. And some think the answer is to have Biden withdraw and settle quickly on Harris.
Joe Klein is in the last camp:
The Republican Convention will provide the Democrats an opportunity to proceed quietly with the task at hand: Convincing Joe Biden to stand down. From what I’m hearing, the process has gone subterranean but is increasing in its intensity. There is a sense that Democrats want this to be a surgical procedure—Biden gone, Kamala installed, no blitz primary. They will, after the quasi-martyrdom and the GOP convention, need something, to bring them back to life. If the Dems had a Trumpian sense of drama, Biden would choose the night of Agent Orange’s convention speech to announce his withdrawal from the race.
We are waiting on a few things, but here are two we know:
1. The shooting did not enhance Joe Biden’s already weak chances to win the election.
2. The shooting did not enhance whatever chances Kamala Harris had, if subbed in, to win the election as the presidential nominee.
Among the many things we don’t know:
1. When will Trump’s running mate choice be revealed and who will it be.
2. If the shooting will impact the public polling in a way the debate did not.
3. If the few people in a position to really try to convince Joe Biden to stand down (Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama indirectly, Ted Kaufman, Ron Klain, Jill/Val/Hunter) have a different point of view or different plan in the wake of the shooting.
And, perhaps most importantly of all when it comes to healing the nation and beating Donald Trump at the same time, what is Joe Biden’s message and method going forward?
When will we see him next on camera? What will he say in any TV interviews he does this week?
Remember: elite Democratic doubts about Biden’s capacity to win have as much to do with their belief that he does not have the strength and acuity to avoid another Atlanta as they do with the polling.
It seems like it will be a bit before Joe Biden can angrily call Donald Trump a convicted felon who threatens our democracy.
Perhaps the greatest irony of all is this: After a political career during which political division and smash mouth politics has been the animating force and key to success, Donald Trump’s path back to the White House is now going to be carried on the wings of angels calling for unity, love, understanding, and America coming together as one.
Of course, while he does that, other Red voices will continue business as usual. As one of the most hard-headed and clear-eyed Democratic strategists I know texted me moments ago:
Trump can really change things by not being Trumpy and rising to the moment. If he wants, let his assholes be assholes while he takes the high road.
If Team Biden has a plan to deal with that game changing reality, we haven’t seen it yet.
Please join us on “The Morning Meeting” at 830am ET Monday to discuss it all.
Mark