Trump Is Still Ahead
Everyone, including Pauline Kael’s closest friends, is talking about this right now:
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
More:
Trump has the edge on securing the border and controlling immigration (35 points over Biden), on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+23), on dealing with crime and violence (+21), on being competent and effective (+16), and on improving America’s standing in the world (+11).
Biden holds advantages over Trump on dealing with abortion (+12) and protecting immigrant rights (+17).
The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump….
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%).
More:
In the new poll, Biden’s approval rating has declined especially among Latinos (just 35% of them now approve of his job performance), voters ages 18-34 (29%) and independents (27%).
Additionally, 36% of voters in the poll approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (down 2 points from November), 34% approve of his handling of foreign policy (down 1 point) and 29% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (down 5 points).
Among voters under 35 years old, only 15% approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while a whopping 70% disapprove.
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Among the reactions I’ve heard/seen from Democrats so far:
* “Yikes!!!”
* “Devastating.”
*
Those Democrats who want to stay the course point out
1. The election isn’t for a while.
2. Trump could still be convicted, which the poll shows *might* lead to a Biden win.
The stay-the-course crowd (sometimes known as the “head-in-the-sand” crowd) also contents itself by saying all the polling is just being manipulated – or maybe just those polls that show Trump ahead.
Here is a new classic of the genre by Dan Pfeiffer:
These days, partisans gravitate to the polls that support their chosen narrative. Trump “truths” the polls that show him winning. Haley supporters and Biden adherents tout the ones that show Biden winning. I love seeing polls that show Biden up. However, it’s best not to get too worked up over an individual poll, and instead look at the overall average and broader trends. That advice, of course, is hard to adhere to in an election with so much at stake.
The broader trends of the recent polling tell me two things. First, Biden, at minimum, has stabilized, and things may be looking up as people’s views on the economy improve. Second, the polls are consistent with what we have long assumed — this is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states. Our task is the same if the polls show Biden up by 2 or down by 5.
One other data point from the bipartisan NBC survey might cause Hill Democrats to flip out a bit:
Biden could, of course, still win.
But it’s also possible too many voters have made up their minds about Biden’s capacity to be a good steward of a good economy and to shut down the border – and those two factors (which can be seen as one factor – age – or three – age, economy, and the border) might be pushing the election in a direction that overwhelms all the other factors, including abortion rights and democratic norms.
Some Republicans are thinking bigger than the conventional mantra of “this is a very close” race:
I continue to believe that the main factor giving Trump the lead is the perception of a lot of voters that the former president’s policies (on the economy and other issues) have been and will be better for them and their families than four more years of the incumbent.
Until and unless that turns around, Trump is likely to stay ahead.
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If you want to hear more about all of this, with a bipartisan, extended, and sophisticated conversation, consider becoming a Mario member of Wide World of News Concierge Coverage, if you aren’t already.
On our Zoom this Tuesday at 6pm ET, we will have analysis of the data by one of the pollsters who conducts the survey, Bill McInturff.
Bill is quoted about his poll by NBC News as saying, “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
Here are some of Bill’s main poll takeaways:
Plus on Tuesday night we will hear the views of polling aces J. Ann Selzer and Whit Ayres.
And analysis on the polling and the state of everything with Joe Scarborough, Meghan McCain, Doug Sosnik, Nan Hayworth, Alex Castellanos, Vin Weber, James Lucier, Mark McKinnon, and many more.
To find out more about Concierge Coverage and to become a member before this session, click here.
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Another way to become a Mario-tier member is to enter the on-going contest I am running to mark the debut of Senator Bill Bradley’s one-man-show film “Rolling Along: An American Story” on Max.
Saturday night in Gotham City, at the World’s Most Famous Arena, during a classic Knicks-Lakers bout, Senator Bradley was honored by his old team, with the trailer for his film played on the Jumbotron and elbows rubbed pleasantly raw:
To enter the drawing to win a FREE year of Mario membership, watch “Rolling Along” on Max and answer these two questions:
1. About whom does Senator Bradley tell a story involving forgiveness starting around 48:45 of the film.
2. What does the handwritten campaign sign in the lower right-hand corner say at 1:21:07 of the film?
Send your two answers to markhalperintalk@gmail.com
You can enter anytime between now and February 12.
If you’re not a Max subscriber, you can visit this link to sign up and view the film.
Everyone who enters will be my guest for a special event with Senator Bradley and Bob Costas online over Zoom on Tuesday, February 13 from 6-7PM ET, where Senator Bradley will take your questions and share stories with people who have been a part of his epic life.
One more Bradley note: Don’t forget to sign up for his Substack; you can read his latest edition, about his connections to music, here.
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To be continued….
