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I can tell you with a high degree of confidence what the days between now and November 3rd will be like.
In a presidential race that has been defined more by stasis than change, the three major players in this life-and-death drama – President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden, and a Dominant Media fully dedicated to and invested in making sure the latter triumphs over the former – are going to consistently play their roles exactly as they have played them for months.
If and when Trump and Biden occasionally deviate from their familiar routines – or events occur that might help the incumbent – the members of the Dominant Media will still determinedly stick to the framing on which they have settled, unless developments give them absolutely no choice but to swerve (as little as professionally possible) from their mission.
So:
Joe Biden will keep the lightest campaign schedule in the modern history of the closing days of a general election for a major party candidate. He will be backed by
-- an overwhelming edge in TV ads and other media spending, which Republican officeholders and strategists will see and be freaked out by (a fact they will share with reporters)
-- squadrons of bold-faced-named surrogates, led by the Obamas, dazzling on social media, fanning out across the battlegrounds, and given plum earned media TV slots
-- glowing, ample coverage of additional endorsements from prominent newly-minted Never Trump Republicans and celebrities
-- news stories driven by on-the-record and background work from Never Trump whistleblowers within the administration, including and especially from agencies such as the CDC and FDA
-- Tony Fauci interviews, in which he talks about matters such as the stalled work of the COVID task force and the unfortunate lack of social distancing and masking at Trump events
As for Biden himself, he will continue to benefit (as the luckiest presidential hopeful of all time, breaking Trump’s 2016 record) from living a few minutes from the state (Pennsylvania) that will decide the election, and where he will campaign with Dr. Jill Biden on Saturday and beyond.
His two main themes, which he will tout with extreme discipline and a mix of sunny optimism and grim denunciations of the incumbent, will stay just as they were from the very start of the general election: Trump has grievously divided America and badly mismanaged the pandemic.
Those twin messages, strongly endorsed by the Dominant Media, will be renewed freshly each day by the latest alarming virus statistics (such as the record number of news cases reported on Friday) and the president’s own continuing divisive and mean-spirited rhetoric (such as his decision to return to referring to President Obama using his middle name, as he did on Friday in Florida).
This New York Times paragraph is highly representative of how the challenger will be covered in all remaining news cycles:
Mr. Biden lobbed familiar barbs at Mr. Trump regarding the coronavirus, but also articulated the values underpinning the central argument of his campaign. In a particularly pointed moment, he vowed not to “let four years of Donald Trump rob us of the most fundamental American qualities: our hope in the future and our faith in ourselves.”
(“pointed” = “moving”)
Joe’s wicked smaaat campaign team, savvy about what the media traffic will bear, will have Biden hold just enough public events each day to avoid being accused of hiding or not working for the vote.
He will eventually start to scale back even his local TV interviews and stay away from the national media (including, for the most part, his convivial traveling press corps, until, at the very end, he poses for homey, jokey keepsake photos with them, as they prepare for slots covering the White House).
As for Donald Trump himself, he will continue to keep up an increasingly frenetic schedule of rallies in battleground states, playing with his new toy of giant video screens set up to show clips of Biden appearing to be a liberal liar. There will be next to no coverage of the points the president is actually trying to make with the video clips.
Here is the kind of chronicle you should expect daily on the web, social media, and anti-Trump TV:
At his rally at The Villages, Mr. Trump hurled insults at Mr. Biden, played a video of the former vice president debating Senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, and said that the country did not want a socialist president — “especially a female socialist president,” he said. That was a reference to Mr. Biden’s running mate, Ms. Harris, whom Mr. Trump and Republicans have falsely portrayed as a far-left radical who will dominate a Biden presidency….
[O]n a day when the number of new cases of the coronavirus in the country hit a record, he declared, “We’ve done so well with it.”
Mr. Trump also returned to some of his favorite grievances, mocking the media and complaining that he is not treated fairly. He made a point of saying President Barack Obama’s full name, accentuating his middle name, “Hussein,” and crediting the conservative radio host and provocateur Rush Limbaugh with doing it first….
Trump and the media will marvel at the pandemic-era crowd sizes, but the press will focus more on
-- the substantive and symbolic dangers of gathering so many people together, especially the relative lack of masks and social distancing
-- the increasing distancing from the president of endangered Republican down ballot candidates, metaphorically illustrated whenever one of them has a classic “scheduling conflict” and fails to join Trump at an event in their state
-- most of all, the “scent of death” prism as represented in this news cycle by a New York Times paragraph, the likes of which you should expect to see a lot of:
Advisers to Mr. Trump were thrilled with the president’s debate performance, and they hoped that he would be able to sustain something approximating discipline into the remaining days. But they conceded that even with that, there may simply not be enough time for Mr. Trump to change his fortunes. (emphasis added)
The president will also do a lot of interviews with conservative media, in part because his allies there will demand one (or two) more appearances and in part because, well, that is what he does and he isn’t going to stop now. Chits for chits.
The Dominant Media will cover these interviews the way they will cover anything Rudy Giuliani does the rest of the way, with eye rolls, headshakes, derisive laughter, “clever” tweets, and an emphasis on mocking over message.
Their coverage of the race overall will be along these lines, as in today from the Washington Post:
[I]n a contest that has remained remarkably stable, the president faces challenges to any effort to reset the race with 10 days to go. Millions of voters have already cast ballots, and few remain undecided. The Trump campaign has less money to spend than Biden’s, and coronavirus cases are spiking in many places, underlining the Democratic message.
Expect front pages and homepages to be a mixture of
-- investigative stories about Trump (but not Biden)
-- pieces highlighting the negative impact and failures of administration policies
-- the metrics of Biden’s advantages over Trump (fundraising, ad spending, etc)
-- the metrics of the impact of the pandemic
-- op ed pieces from every liberal columnist, getting in last licks against the incumbent
Today’s offerings from the New York Times and Washington Post are highly representative of what you will see:
To the extent there are Dominant Media stories about Hunter Biden or Anthony Bobulinski, they will be centered on
-- knocking down the notion that there is any there there
-- Team Trump’s desperate, last-minute efforts to make something out of nothing
-- the fact that Joe Biden has not been charged with a crime
-- the media-on-media angle, such as pretending the Wall Street Journal ed board is at war with the paper’s news side or such as this, written with no intended irony whatsoever:
Fox News is giving more airtime to the unverified Hunter Biden emails than it did to the hacked emails from Mr. Podesta in 2016, according to an analysis from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, which studies disinformation….
In contrast, most viewers of CNN and MSNBC would not have heard much about the unconfirmed Hunter Biden emails, according to the analysis. CNN’s mentions of “Hunter” peaked at 20 seconds and MSNBC’s at 24 seconds one day last week.
The members of Team Trump will rail on conservative cable TV and tweet and massively retweet each other over every actual and perceived slight and case of professional malpractice they see by the Dominant Media, apparently thinking such derision will increase their guy’s chances of winning. They will do this knowing they are no longer actually working the refs, because the refs in question are of a piece with the refs who used to work games between the Harlem Globetrotter and Washington Generals.
Senator Kamala Harris will get more coverage, and more favorable coverage by a lot, compared to the combined attention paid to Mike Pence and Amy Coney Barrett (whose confirmation will be covered as a process story and a Mitch McConnell power grab).
The potential historic “first” of Harris will be painted in more glowing and excited terms than the actual historic first of Barrett (first openly pro-life woman on the High Court, first mother with school-aged children, etc).
The level of October Surprise that will be required to alter any of the above includes
-- a Martian invasion
-- Jim Comey endorsing Trump for reelection
-- a lacquered Chinese box filled with cash and a thank you note from Xi Jinping found in Joe Biden’s backyard
****
THE STATES THAT WILL PICK THE PRESIDENT - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona
* Tucson elections officials remove off-duty police providing early voting center security, cite intimidation concerns. (Arizona Daily Star)
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Georgia
* State election officials hope weekend voting kickoff eases long lines, wait times with 5X 2016 ballots cast. (WRDW CBS12)
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Florida
* Sunshine State voters passionately split on COVID response as Election Day nears. (WPTV NBC5)
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Iowa
* Hawkeye State in-person, mail-in ballots cast at record pace despite 11 fewer early voting days, D’s 51% lead R’s 31%, significantly greater than 2012, 2016. (KGAN CBS2)
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Maine
* City, town clerks confident in reporting results Nov. 3rd given ME’s rule allowing ballot processing one week prior to Election Day. (Lewiston Sun Journal)
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Michigan
* President Trump bringing battle directly to Gov. Whitmer, Ingham County with Lansing rally Tuesday afternoon. (The Detroit News)
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Nebraska
* At sprinter’s pace, Trump dashing to Omaha’s Eppley Airfield for Tuesday night rally immediately after departing Wolverine State. (Omaha World-Herald)
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New Hampshire
* Granite State voters have new presidential election resource as pandemic driven absentee ballot drop-boxes make debut. (Concord Monitor)
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Nevada
* Trump campaign, state GOP file suit against NV SOS Barbara Cegavske, Clark County Registrar requesting ballot processing & counting stop until observers allowed. (KLAS CBS8)
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North Carolina
* State officials tell homeless residents they can still vote, use registration form map, mark sleeping location. (Spectrum News Central NC)
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Ohio
* Buckeye State ballot box limit remains as advocates drop suit to expand locations upon court’s post-election decision notice. (WBNS CBS10)
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Pennsylvania
* Keystone State Supreme Court unanimously rules ballots can’t be rejected based solely on signature comparisons. (Politico)
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Texas
* Gov. Abbott-ordered 6 more early voting days fuels 6.4M (37.6%) Lonestar State returned ballots, a turnout not seen in years. (The Texas Tribune)
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Wisconsin
* Trump Waukesha rally is runner-up to desired Milwaukee Mitchell Int’l Airport which denied event due to city’s pandemic gathering limits. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
****
TOP STORIES – by Brian P. Nadeau
Sports: Tom Brady & Bruce Arians elevate Bucs offense, sign WR Antonio Brown to 1-year deal.
Business: SF-based Fed. judge rejects DOJ request to prohibit Apple, Google from offering WeChat app downloads in U.S., agency quickly files 9th Circuit Court appeal.
Entertainment: Actress Jennifer Aniston announces Biden endorsement, casts ballot in L.A., says 'PS — It’s not funny to vote for Kanye.'
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Comedy, drama, and the latest information….
Have Mark Halperin speak by videoconference to your organization about the closing days of the campaign, the final presidential debate, or what happens after Election Day.
Please send all inquiries to markhalperintalk@gmail.com