What Do Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron Klain, King Salman, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Mitch McConnell Have in Common?
None of them will be at CPAC on Friday (as far as we know)….
Get all the latest Wide World of News on the 24/7 website the Walking Duck.
****
Here is the story of the circumstances under which I met Donald Trump, as told in my most recent book, “How to Beat Trump: America's Top Political Strategists On What It Will Take”:
In the spring of 2011, I was invited to visit Trump Tower and meet with its eponymous owner. The billionaire had spoken at CPAC that February, and I was present to cover the meeting. A number of well-known conservatives and would- be presidential candidates appeared at the event, but when Trump took the stage, the room was packed to the gills with avid listeners, many of them young. The speech Trump gave— vilifying Beltway elites, career politicians, China, Mexico, and illegal immigrants—would become familiar to cable news and YouTube viewers five years later. But in that ballroom on that day, Trump shook the rafters and planted the seeds of his historic White House victory.
It is not difficult to gauge the potency of a political presentation by the intensity of the audience response, but the excitement Trump aroused was exceptional. The CPAC crowd loved Trump’s message—not his theatrics or his celebrity, but his message—and the fervent reaction to him far out-stripped that of every other speaker, including the many White House hopefuls who sought the GOP nomination in 2012. Soon after Trump’s CPAC event, I appeared on television and made those points. I did not in any way endorse Trump’s remarks, of course, but merely conveyed the force and power of his display. I said that if Trump chose to enter the Republican presidential nomination fight, his potential should not be underestimated.
Trump was watching the television segment. One sure thing about Donald Trump back then, which is still true to this day: if you said something favorable about him on television, he would call you on the telephone and tell you how smart you are. He phoned me up, thanked me for my comments on his CPAC speech, and invited me to come by Trump Tower and have a little talk about politics. Trump had been a fixture in business, pop culture, the gossip rags, and the modern American psyche since my youth, and for all his cartoonish swank, he was a fascinating figure. Now he was making waves in the world of politics.
I accepted…..
Fast forward exactly a decade.
The chances are better than 27% that the person who will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 (if that person is not Donald J. Trump) will give a very good speech at CPAC over the next 72 hours.
And by “good,” I mean it will be well and excitingly presented, but also that it will be filled with themes and aspirations that capture the mood of center-right America.
If you look at all of the recent presidential nominees of both political parties, they most significantly shared two things in common: they were seen by their side as strong (meaning: electable) general election candidates and as plausible-to-potentially-great presidents.
So listen to Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, and the rest, of course, but also look deep into the eyes and souls of the CPAC attendees to divine how they are reacting to what they are hearing and seeing.
Figure out how they feel.
That is what I will be spending my Friday-Sunday doing.
There is no other event in America, in either the Redlands or Bluelands, that plays as central a role in reflecting and shaping the presidential landscape as CPAC does.
As a prelude to Sunday’s planned closing speech by Trump himself, check out the essential reading Washington Post and Los Angeles Times stories making it clear that CPAC is all about POTUS45 even more than the Republican Party is all about DJT.
Oh, and, per Politico, Corey Lewandowski is focused less on whipping votes for his boss in the CPAC presidential straw poll (no spoiler alert needed on this one) and more focused on starting a new Trump Super PAC.
****
Joe Biden is going to Texas Friday to send an “I care” message on the storms and the pandemic, after sending a (limited) message to Syria, Iran, and the world about his willingness to use (limited) force, and after sending a message to Saudi Arabia that either will shake the Saudis to their foundation or that they will ignore as another in a long line of attempts by a long line of U.S. presidents to bend the Kingdom to the will of the United States.
****
After the Senate parliamentarian nixed including the current version of the minimum wage increase in the pending $1.9 trillion package, Teams Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer all vowed to fight on.
But where to take that fight remains unclear, as Politico lays out in its report on the absence of clear next steps in both this legislative fight and beyond.
On this issue (and looming others), Teams Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer appear to have four broad options (I’m assuming overruling the parliamentarian is not currently an option, since it seems to have been ruled out by the Democratic Powers That Be):
1. Failure.
2. Compromise enough to get all 50 Senate Democrats on board on matters that can be addressed via reconciliation (which could include a recrafted minimum wage provision).
3. Compromise enough to get 10 Senate Republicans to join all 50 Senate Democrats on matters that can be addressed via regular order under current rules.
4. Get all 50 Senate Democrats on board to blow up the filibuster and then compromise enough to get all 50 Senate Democrats on board for whatever.
I can’t at this writing speak to the odds of (1), but given the politics of Joe Biden, the Democratic House caucus, Mitch McConnell, Joe Manchin, and Kyrsten Sinema, the odds of (2), (3), and (4) do not currently look that high.
Bernie Sanders is right: Working people need a raise.
Now it is up to the masterminds in the worlds of Teams Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer to figure out how to get them one.
****
Thanks to one of the central masterminds on those teams, my prediction that Biden World would be able to defy history and avoid negative blind quotes from inside the tent (with numerous political and other benefits for the White House) lasted less than a week.
Biden chief of staff Ron Klain has been tarred by some of his colleagues with responsibility for the apparent failure of the Neera Tanden nomination, and that tarring has led to two newspaper stories suggesting he messed up by not seeing around the corner and knowing the pick could be in trouble.
The New York Times version is mild.
The Washington Post version is spicy (but not extra spicy), and includes this blinder:
“This was Ron, Ron, Ron, Ron,” one of the senior Democratic officials said. “Ron is doing a great job, but this was not his best moment.”
What’s most interesting about these stories, however, to the Gang of 500’s most sophisticated readers is the obvious effort that Team Klain made behind the scenes before these two stories were published to spin spin spin spin spin to minimize the general blame the White House would get for this imbroglio – and to minimize, more specifically, the blame Klain would get. You can read all about it in the crevices and nooks and crannies of these two articles.
All modern White House chiefs of staff use the apparatus of the administration to protect and defend their own brands and public images, so there is nothing new here.
But it is important to keep watching this space.
The Biden White House has a lot of powerful players at the top, folks who have the president’s ear and are moving a lot of chocolates across the conveyer belt.
But Klain is the candy man who is first among equals.
You would literally not believe the heavy lifting he has done for months on the Hill, with various party stakeholders (including the progressive movement), with personnel, with the pandemic, with so much more.
Is this Tanden matter a distraction so minimal that Klain himself has already forgotten about it?
Or is this something more?
Only time, luck, and the capacity of the human body of a 59-year-old man will tell.
****
Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is a very complicated person, personally and politically.
Far be it from me to assert that she can, nonetheless, be summed entirely up in a tweeted reply to one of my tweets.
****
Please consider becoming a voluntary subscriber to Wide World of News:
You can also instead make a voluntary contribution in ANY lower amount than the formal subscription rates.
Send a simple email to markhalperintalk@gmail.com and ask how you can help keep Wide World of News alive 7 days a week.
You can also…
Thank you for considering supporting my work at this difficult time for many.