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TO: Governor Ron DeSantis
FROM: Former Governor Jeb Bush
DATE: April 16, 2023
RE: Trumpelstiltskin
I am either the best or worst person to give you advice about how to beat Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
But/and here goes!
My experience in 2016 is not the perfect analogue for the perils you face now, but there are enough similarities that I feel compelled to weigh in.
You surely feel that being the hyper competent, twice-elected Sunshine State governor gives you a resume that voters will be drawn to, certainly more appealing than that of a carnival barker (even if, now, that carnival barker has also been commander-in-chief).
You have a lot of assets going for you that I had, in addition to the Florida Miracle. You’ve got a Super PAC staffed by killers. You have bundlers and elected officials across the country thirsting for your leadership. You’ve got a strong case to make about electability in the general election. For many Republicans you represent the best hope to stop the nomination from going to a man who has no business being the face of our great party.
And you have smart people like Ross Douthat telling you it is your time to run right now, that waiting for another cycle would be a mistake.
While you are striking while the iron is hot, and while you think (as I did) that you have been around the block three or four time and thus know how to run smartly for president your first time out, trust me, it is harder than it looks – especially if you are running against Trump.
This dude will say anything, do anything, attack anything (or anyone) in pursuit of his goals. You are a tough guy, Ron, maybe even tougher than me, but you can’t really appreciate what it is like to have even a modicum of decency, humility, and sense of proportion and run against Trump.
I overcome a lot of obstacles in my career before 2015, but NOTHING I ever did in or out of politics was like competing with Trump for the nomination.
First of all, for Trump, being the Chaos Candidate is a feature not a bug. He thrives on keeping everyone else off balance. He might seem like he is sure to topple off of the highwire, but he is magically superglued to that thing. He can take giant shoves and punches at you, and never slip enough to actually fall.
I’ve not talked to you in detail about what might be in your background that Trump can come after. But, trust me, if you said it, touched it, or bought it, Trump is going to blow it up big.
He is relentless – with the press, with the politics, with the “policy” – what passes for “policy” with him.
And he is undisciplined in a way the grassroots loves.
Except, of course, when his surprisingly good instincts tell him that being “disciplined” is what he needs. Look at what he did in front of the RNC donors on Saturday, per Politico:
Instead of devoting time in his speech to decry voting machines or allege election officials to be corrupt, Trump touted accomplishments from his four years in office and made sweeping pledges for what he will do if elected again. One such promise was that he would end the war between Ukraine and Russia before even stepping foot into the White House — vowing to do so, without explanation on strategy, “shortly after” winning the presidential election. Similarly, Trump said he would put an end to cartel networks “just as we destroyed the ISIS caliphate.”
Trump vowed to “totally obliterate the Deep State,” directing the Department of Justice to go after local prosecutors deemed as “Marxist” or “racist-in-reverse.” He pledged to sign an executive order cutting federal funding from schools that teach critical race theory or “inappropriate” sexual content, as well as for schools and colleges implementing mask or vaccine requirements. And he said he would sign a federal law forbidding sex-change procedures on children.
Trump knows how to drive a strong general election message while simultaneously seeking to win over the hearts and minds of Republican nomination voters. This was one of the under appreciated aspects of how he beat me and fifteen other reasonable Republican candidates in 2016.
An outsider but a Republican (sort of….).
A man who will blow up the system but somehow can make the system work.
And a guy who acted like he didn’t give a rip but gave voters a sense he would win back the White House.
He’s recreating all of that again, which is why he is ahead of you by thirty points in the polls.
You, like me, were a super effective and popular governor of the most important political state in America.
But Trump is (still) leading a movement. Movements have energy, passion, drive. You have those things on a limited basis, but not like Trump does. The only “movement” I was leading was in the minds of inhabitants of Manhattan board rooms.
Trump’s new fundraising report shows the challenge you face, even with all the money you can raise.
As Politico points out, Trump is going to raise big off of his legal trouble (and that movement). And, as the Washington Post reports in reference to your proven capacity to appeal to the richest conservative folks in America:
It remains to be seen, however, how much a financial edge will matter in efforts to topple Trump. One person who works with major donors, and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to address fundraising dynamics candidly, pointed to a “disconnect between big donors and the base, which is even more clear this cycle than in the previous one.”
In a sign of Trump’s continued appeal with small-dollar donors, nearly 99 percent of contributions in the first three months of the year were of $200 or less, the campaign said. The average donation was about $35.
Trump’s campaign detailed its finances in a filing on Saturday with the Federal Election Commission. The campaign said on Saturday that it had raised about $15 million in the two weeks after the indictment, nearly equivalent to its haul throughout the entire first quarter. The campaign also said that nearly 25 percent of those contributions came from new donors.
Here is the biggest danger to you now: You are more in a bubble than I was. Which is saying a lot.
Unlike you, I had a publicly known email address, to which all sorts of people sent me messages, which I actually read. Including from national political reporters, which gave me some insight into what was going on. And I had advisers who had been involved at the highest levels of American politics who warned me that there was trouble ahead, who saw how potent Trump was.
Your cloistered situation now reminds me of that old line attributed to Pauline Kael, about how she didn’t know anyone who voted for Nixon. Most everyone you talk to is done with Trump and wants YOU.
These Republicans you are most likely to meet around the country are going to give you a false impression of the status of Trump’s hold on the party. The more elite people are, the more out of touch they are going to be about your chances.
Almost everyone you come in contact with tells you how great you are, how you are the only Republican who can beat Trump for the nomination, how the base will see you as standing for everything Trump good does but without the drama, meaning you can win over suburban voters and not cost the party another election.
But the general election polls don’t show you with an edge over Trump versus Biden. And now your entire narrative (and not just with the New York Times) is that you are fading fast. That storyline is driven largely by the media, keying off of your overall polling collapse. It is very tough to change.
Don’t underestimate how damaging and dangerous your situation is right now. This Financial Times interview with Thomas Peterffy yesterday is all anyone in the political world is talking about, and it suggests to them that your elite support is crumbling too.
When both Maggie Haberman and Ron Brownstein are effectively doing Team Trump’s bidding, you know things are not headed in the right direction.
Before, every time a donor or pol defected from Trump to you, you won the news cycle. Now, as bad gets worse for you, the Petrffy flap is going to put more of your blood in the water.
Three months ago, 85% of the Establishment was counting on you to be the person who could stop Trump from his reign of error and terror over our party. That perception has been shattered.
Once you get in the race and show everyone how much money you can raise, that will calm the horses a bit.
But what Peterffy is reacting to is going to be a real problem with the donor community and it could eat into your money totals in a significant way.
I’m pro-life also, of course, but on abortion and some of these other cultural issues, you are going to disappoint a lot of our biggest donors, who care about low taxes, carried interest, and excessive regulation, not about the social Red red meat.
They are personally offended by some of your positions (as are their kids and spouses and country club pals), but they also think your views and record make you a much riskier bet in the general election, which makes them less inclined to wager on you with their wallets.
Look at what Josh Barro wrote about you:
When COVID hit, Ron DeSantis had one excellent political idea. His position against lockdowns and restrictions, for the normal delivery of government services, and for societal normalcy energized Republicans and won over a lot of independents. He won a big re-election. But he’s increasingly failing to convince me that was a demonstration of durable political talent, rather than of having had one good political idea.
On Thursday he signed a bill to ban abortion after the sixth week of pregnancy. When I’ve written about DeSantis’s record of electoral success in Florida — a record I think Democrats should take very seriously — one thing I’ve repeatedly noted is that DeSantis was defending a mainstream position on abortion when he sought re-election in 2022. On his watch, Florida had banned abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a policy idea that both polls pretty well and would have permitted the vast majority of abortions that American women had sought under the Roe regime.
That’s out the window now — in 2024, he’ll be running on an extreme and unpopular position. Abortion, like Social Security and Medicare, is another issue where Trump may succeed at vaguely fudging his way to DeSantis’s left in a way that strengthens his position in a general election. Is DeSantis really going to let Trump position himself, in the primary, as the electability candidate? In addition to being a bad approach to the general, we’re seeing with this ad how it’s even likely to cause him trouble in the primary.
Trump has already tricked you into moving way too far to the right.
That is hurting your standing with elites, who are now both looking elsewhere for their Stop-Trump vehicle (Mike Pence, Chris Sununu, and Brian Kemp were all given RNC donor meeting slots this weekend to bash him), but it is also leading to some premature but dangerous resignation that no one – including you – can derail the Trump train.
This quote from Politico from the RNC meeting is probably the most significant element in any news story today:
Another donor, who said he was no diehard Trump fan, questioned not just DeSantis’ ability to break through in the primary but whether he could win in a general election. Calling the recent indictment against Trump “jet fuel” in the primary, the donor — like others here — said he was nearly resolved to the fact that Trump will be the party’s 2024 nominee.
Trump knows now what he knew in 2015 – the best way to win the nomination is to give donors, electeds, and voters a vivid sense that he knows how to win the general election. The polling makes clear that Biden is vulnerable, but folks intuitively know it won’t be easy.
You need to not get baited by Trump into taking him on frontally. Focus on winning people over to the idea that you can win a general election.
I watched the videos on social media of your campaigning with voters in Manchester's Airport Diner at the tail end of your New Hampshire trip.
Pretty good, but, to be honest, you are still showing less of an appealing common touch with these demanding voters than I did – and I was at constantly risk of ordering Grey Poupon with my poutine at nearly every stop.
This WMUR account suggests the challenge ahead:
Customers at the diner were intrigued to see the Republican governor, who had been the featured speaker at a state GOP fundraiser the night before.
"I think he is a true gentleman. I think his background speaks for itself with his military experience," said Joseph Piwowarski, a Republican voter from Beverly, Massachusetts.
Piwowarski said he is a supporter of former President Trump but is also interested in considering DeSantis as the 2024 nominee. However, winning over his vote will be difficult. "I don't know if there is one thing," he said. "I don't know if I would vote for him over Trump. I am a Trump supporter. I would vote for either one of them."
Can you best Trump with your current performance level and on the current trajectory?
I’m sure your team, including at the Super PAC, tell you you are right on track.
You need to stop listening to them so much, and figure out if Thomas Peterffy is a one-off or a canary in a coal mine.
The field is going to be smaller than many thought, and no other candidate is likely to catch on anytime soon, maybe ever.
But if you can’t change the polls enough by Thanksgiving to demonstrate to the donors and voters and pols you can beat both Trump and Biden, your rocket ride is going to end up like mine did, crashed into a big heap of failure, while Trump marches on in triumph.
Call anytime to discuss.
****
ESSENTIAL READING
*
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WAVE) - Police are investigating after 2 people were killed and 4 others injured after shots were fired into a crowd of people in Chickasaw Park on Saturday night.
Calls came in around 9 p.m. on reports of a shooting at the park, according to Louisville Metro Police spokeswoman Alicia Smiley.
Officers responded and found two people shot and killed at the scene and four others who had been injured in the shooting.
The four injured victims were taken to University Hospital. One victim is in critical condition, while the other three victims’ conditions are currently unknown.
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* Team Haley played a very dangerous and ill-advised game, misleading reporters and the public about her first-quarter fundraising. Now that the real numbers are filed with the FEC, Politico and other organizations are making the former South Carolina governor pay twice, calling her to account both for her double dealing double counting and discounting the impressiveness of her haul. This is a credibility hit that will sustain, especially if her second-quarter tally reflects a big dropoff.
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* Who said it?
Both Trump and Biden should withdraw from the race, and let younger politicians in both parties figure a way forward. Will they? I doubt it. Trump won’t because his ego won’t allow it. Biden probably won’t because he fears Trump could beat other Dems. But Biden should follow the path of Anthony Kennedy and retire while he can still pick a successor who isn’t his vice president, who’d inherit in the case of sudden death or incapacity. He needs to avoid the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap and suddenly leave the Dems with Kamala Harris against Trump. No one could blame Biden for deciding on a one-term legacy this summer.
He’s given a lifetime of service to this country. A final service? Take a deep breath and leave the stage. You’ll be glad you did.
A. Tucker Carlson
B. Andrew Sullivan
C. Charlie Black
D. Bob Shrum
The correct answer is here.