I can’t tell you what the Fed will do around 2pm ET today, but I can tell you they won’t be indicting Donald Trump over the Stormy Daniels matter.
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ESSENTIAL VIEWING
* The death of the late, very great Willis Reed reminds me to remind those of you with two hours to spare to watch the 1970 Game Seven NBA Finals finale between the Knicks and the Lakers, when an injured Willis came out on the court and carried the Madison Gardeners to victory. Here is the whole classic contest:
This vintage Art Carney at eighteen video will blow your mind – the production values, the FDR imitation, the salesmanship, and the whole zeitgeist.
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Every four years during my career as a political reporter, I’ve heard colleagues say (and some strategists predict) that “this” cycle will be the “most negative campaign” of all time.
I’ve always taken that as about as seriously as presidential candidates saying that “this is the most important election of our lifetime.”
2024 might be the cycle in which both are actually true.
Whether it ends up Biden vs. Trump, Biden vs. DeSantis, or something else, the events of this week suggest (to marry up the two cliches) that the gloves are off and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
So far, spouses seem to be mostly off limits, but offspring are decidedly not.
There is NOTHING Donald Trump and his supporters will not accuse Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis of. Literally nothing.
Right now, my Twitter feed is a cesspool that would make Lee Atwater blush (and/but also make him a bit envious of the modern tools available to smear). Or, to put it another way, the upcoming months are going to make the accusations of a pedophile ring run out of the basement of a Chevy Chase pizzeria look like a policy dispute over maritime law between Lamar Alexander and Bob Graham.
A Trump indictment is only going to inflame, incite, provoke.
To update the axiom popularized by a president whose impeachment, polarizing environment, and post-presidential legal troubles now seem quaint, if you see a turtle on a fence post, you can assume it was put there by the bloody and malevolent hand of Jack the Ripper.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* The Daily Mail blares:
HALPERIN SAYS: We are still in “when” not “if” mode on the indictment. Bet, as the vaunted Mail suggests, on an indictment this week and an appearance next.
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* Piers Morgan calls his interview with Ron DeSantis (which airs Thursday night) “the most personal and revealing he’s ever given,” while the Washington Post says it contains the Sunshine State topper’s “sharpest criticism yet of former president Donald Trump.”
Read both New York Post stories about the tete-a-tete for yourself here and here.
The Daily Mail captures the slapback:
HALPERIN SAYS: On first blush, Piers seems to be overstating the case, but DeSantis just hasn’t done too many interviews like this to date. “Why” and “How” Piers got this sitdown is a very interesting pair of questions.
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* The Washington Post explores what Team Trump thinks about running with their candidate under indictment, saying the campaign has raised $1.5 million since Saturday and this:
One person familiar with the matter said there have been many discussions in Trump’s orbit on whether the indictment from Bragg makes it more likely that others follow. Several advisers see some of the other cases as more legally perilous for Trump….
“It does make the conversation of the primary all about Trump, which is a good dynamic he had going for him in 2016, everyone being asked to react to Trump,” a Republican operative familiar with Trump’s campaign effort said. “We’re right now fighting a primary so all that matters is the party, and we can deal with the general after….”
“The Trump people expect [DeSantis] to throw himself into the service of Donald Trump at all times, because guess what? That’s what Republicans have done since 2016,” said David Reaboi, a media consultant and former Trump supporter who now prefers DeSantis as a presidential candidate. “If somebody was going to challenge Donald Trump, they have to put an end to that.”
HALPERIN SAYS: If they have really only raised $1.5 million, this is a bigger problem than the Mar-a-Lago spin suggests. Also, Mr. Reaboi’s phone is going to explode today.
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* The New York Times does its most comprehensive roundup on the legal basis for a Manhattan indictment, and comes down more on the side of “yes, it is legit” than some of the CW.
HALPERIN SAYS: Whatever your point of view, let’s all read any indictment before reaching our own final verdict(s) on whether the case might go to trial.
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* The Wall Street Journal roundup of the House Republican retreat contains these Big Casino paragraphs:
Republicans have maintained they will pass a budget that aims to eliminate the deficit after 10 years. With cuts to Medicare and Social Security off the table, such a plan would require deep reductions in other parts of the federal budget. GOP members mostly expect to see a Republican budget plan at the end of April or in May.
In a Tuesday meeting of lawmakers on spending and the debt ceiling, Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R., Texas) presented a list of potential spending cuts, and ways to balance the budget, according to a lawmaker in the room. Social Security and Medicare weren’t on the list, but work requirements for government healthcare benefits were, as was rolling back spending to fiscal year 2022 levels. Lawmakers also said they want to use unspent Covid-19 relief money to address the deficit.
HALPERIN SAYS: Go ahead, take until May; unless you find some serious coin under the congressional sofa cushions, the math is not going to work to get past the White House – or to win a majority in the House. Tick tock tick tock until the debt ceiling deadline.
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* The Washington Post says Mitch McConnell is on the mend and finally speaking to colleagues.
HALPERIN SAYS: The Bluegrasser is still the indispensable man when it comes to 2023’s must-pass bills.
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HALPERIN SAYS: Watch the Rocket Man; he wants attention. And when he wants attention, he usually gets it.