Why Joe Biden Might Not Run
I am nothing if not a counter programmer.
Yes, I have included some Trump news at the back end of this edition.
Ok, fine, here’s one thing that can’t wait until then:
You can read and watch Trump news anywhere today, including, coming soon (!), the actual indictment.
So instead let’s take a look at the other two leading presidential contenders.
I’m not making predictions or taking a hard point of view but consider these two very plausible suppositions:
JOE BIDEN MIGHT NOT RUN FOR REELECTION
RON DESANTIS MIGHT NOT BE A GOOD ENOUGH CANDIDATE TO WIN
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JOE BIDEN MIGHT NOT RUN FOR REELECTION
I cannot reveal here all that I know that causes me to raise in a serious way the prospect that Joe Biden might, in the end, not be the Democratic nominee by his own choice.
Suffice to say that I have talked to a lot of people who have keen insight into this situation, including two in particular who feel very strongly that the president has not truly made up his mind and, in the end, will likely reach a no-go decision.
Why?
Let me list the reasons:
a. His age.
b. He can’t realistically serve six more years, so he would be running for a term he likely can’t finish.
c. His physical decline, which is being noted to me regularly these days by those who know him well and have been up close of late.
d. His mental decline, which seems exacerbated these days, with one theory being that Jeff Zients does not have Ron Klain’s expert touch in how to get the president the rest he needs before public events.
e. Even with a Rose Garden strategy, he would face some grueling campaign trail days in 2024.
f. A poor debate performance could be devastating for the party’s chances and Biden’s legacy.
g. Hunter Biden, a factor that should not be underestimated, since if his dad is president, the chances are far greater the investigations (criminal and congressional) will explode and take down the entire Biden family. If Joe is out of office, there’s a much greater chance that Team Biden can finesse, strong arm, and keep it a middling scandal or even sweep it away.
h. Tony Bobulinski, who might be telling more of the truth than the president is, and in the context of a presidential campaign, the world could find that out.
i. Spend more time with his grandkids.
j. Vice President Harris, who will be a complex running mate with whom to seek reelection, unless her polling and performance get a lot better.
k. Joe Biden is a student of history, like Harry Truman was. And, like Truman, Biden has lived a lot of modern American history, and seen it up close. Here’s what Joe and Jill know: There has been no successful elected second-term president in his lifetime, with the exception of FDR. To think the second term of a man in his eighties, with the level of problems America will face ,will be successful is a fool's errand. Many of Joe Biden’s friends think he and Jill are smart enough to know that. And she really wants him to have what he has well earned, time with grandkids, writing (and being paid for) his memoirs. Joe and Jill also know that this nation has had extremely successful one-term presidents -- among them Polk, Truman and HW Bush. And there is no better job in America than former president -- just ask the Carters, the Bushes, or the Obamas.
Even if Joe Biden is (as his critics contend) a vain, arrogant, dissembling, and self-centered man, he still knows America has been good to him. He’s a patriot. The world is in a dangerous place and he knows a strong, reliable, sound American president might be the only thing protecting the globe from Putin, Xi, returning threats from terrorism and the Middle East
If Joe Biden’s friend John McCain were in this spot, he would, with sorrow, regret, and ambivalence, almost certainly not seek another term.
With the possible exception of Woodrow Wilson, for all the constant daily stresses piled on every White House team, there hasn’t ever been as exhausting a routine as this one, trying to manage the president’s decline and inconsistent performance. Even the Reagan White House did not have this level of stress, because of the lack of social media, smart phones, and a fully aware press corps.
If Biden indeed ends up not running, what happens to the Democratic Party nomination?
That, my friends, is a tale for another day.
There is a crack, a crack in everything, and that's how the light gets in.
-- Leonard Cohen's “Anthem”
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RON DESANTIS MIGHT NOT BE A GOOD ENOUGH CANDIDATE TO WIN
Full props to Governor DeSantis’ rocket ride to becoming the only current credible threat to Donald Trump for the nomination and for his extraordinary reelection victory last November. Clearly, this man is an immense political talent.
But the stories about his shortcomings in some basic areas of presidential candidate skills continue to pour in.
There is zero doubt that donors, experienced political hands, other elected officials, and voters are frequently baffled by the Sunshine State topper’s unwillingness and inability to do some of the very basics: Show up on time, be gracious, make small talk, ask after the relatives of people he meets, tell humanizing stories, be self-effacing, laugh, connect.
Last Saturday, DeSantis did a book signing event and made remarks at two stops in Pennsylvania.
From both events, I received reports from folks who were enthusiastic about and interested in hearing from the man himself. I’m sure other attendees came away with more favorable impressions, but here is what I heard.
At the book event, DeSantis arrived to find scores of people who had braved some bad weather to be a part of the moment. DeSantis ignored the crowd on arrival, sat impassively as his staff barked orders about no photos, keeping the line moving, etc. To say DeSantis missed some layup opportunities to make small talk with book buyers is an understatement. His performance matched reports other journalists and I have seen and heard about from his previous book events.
As for his other event, here in full is the email I received from a Wide World of News reader with a keen eye and keener ear:
Mark,
Your email was perfectly timed as I was just about to send a short note about Ron DeSantis’ appearance here in Pennsylvania on Saturday. It certainly wasn’t a fundraiser. It was more of a friend raiser, or maybe it was more an infomercial for his book (Not everyone got a copy! If you’re going to hand out free-bees, make sure you have enough for everyone!)
Nothing against the Penn Harris Hotel in Camp Hill, PA (just outside of Harrisburg, the claim to fame is that the Book of the Month Club used to be based here), but this is basically a nice third-rate motel, clean and such but…..
I admit that I am biased when it comes to critiquing speeches and delivery. I studied under and worked with Jamie Humes when he was teaching at Penn, and I believe that I was taught by a master.
Often when Jamie’s speech writing and speaking class met, we would spend some time at the beginning of the session critiquing recent speeches that Jamie suggested we watch over the weekend.
We assuredly would have talked about DeSantis’ speech and I think we would have given him a C for content and a C minus (or even a D) for his delivery.
DeSantis is NOT a very good storyteller. And I think he blew a couple of great opportunities. His father was from Aliquippa, one of the steel towns outside and down the Ohio River from Pittsburgh. He could have compared and contrasted the dying steel towns of the 1970s with a thriving 21st century Florida, or talked about why the family moved from western Pennsylvania to Florida … but he didn’t. (I’ve heard Joe Biden - who was in Philadelphia on Saturday to see his granddaughter’s art exhibition at Penn (where she’s a student) with Jill and Hunter in tow, lunch (pancakes!) at Parc on Rittenhouse Square with an impromptu serenade from students from the Curtis Institute of Music right across the street from the restaurant-Curtis is harder to get into than Julliard by the way - riff and riff about Scranton and the neighbors and his house.) But Ron had no Biden-esque stories. From his speech I’m not sure that he’s ever been to Aliquippa to see the old family homestead! Missed opportunity.
He did mention playing in the Little League World Series in Williamsport, no small achievement getting to play there… but, Mark, that was the most boring story about the Little League World Series that I may have ever heard! And I don’t think he told us how his team did there!!
Same thing with the Gettysburg and Independence Hall mentions! Yawn, yawn, yawn! And again missed opportunities.
Most of the speech was about Florida and what he has done for Florida, and I suspect it was word for word from the book. But if what he talked about were the highlights of his accomplishments in Florida, he needs to take a few notes from the Chrises -- Sununu and Christie. When the Chrises speak about New Hampshire and New Jersey they try (hard!) to convince you that NH and NJ are the best states in the union, and if they don’t succeed in getting you to move there, they at least make you a little jealous that you’re not there.
Rather than rote recitation, tell us why we should be excited about Florida! Cheerlead!!
For a speech that he has clearly give dozens of times, he was clearly reading too much verbatim from his notes. There was no Trumpian spontaneity here! For a speech that he’s given so many times, you would expect more memorization and less note reading. (This would have driven Jamie Humes nuts!)
There was one point in the speech where he was talking about how it’s not his job to make himself look good so he can keep his job, but his main job was to focus on the jobs of his voters. But isn’t his job more about focusing on the lives of his Florida voters, and his Florida voters’ jobs are just a subset of that?
Overall it was a pretty dull speech, poorly delivered.
He clearly did not wish to make any news during his Pennsylvania speech as there was barely any mention of Trump and the indictment. It was glancingly mentioned and he touched on the wokeness of the DA and how he was politicizing his office and being weak on actual crime.
At the end of the speech (no barn burner wrap up), he took no questions. He lingered for the bare minimum of time with the crowd, mostly selfie photos and a few signatures in his book.
Why were people there? Curiosity, I think. They were window shopping. Did he win over anyone who had not been a supporter before the speech? Can’t say.
I know this wasn’t a speech to potential donors as it lacked that passionate pitch that good fundraising speeches always have.
I know that he can’t formally run yet without resigning from the governorship. And while it was obvious to everyone that this was a “preview of coming attractions” speech, he did not tease it that way at all. There could have been the “wink wink” now and then but there was none of that. It was just a very plain speech.
When Chris Sununu talks about the bare minimum of taxes in New Hampshire, he’s passionate about it and wants to convince you that this is the way to do it, to run a state. I didn’t hear any of that kind of talk from DeSantis.
The content of the speech was pretty much a nothing burger. He wasn’t talking at all about what he would do if he was president (I know, I know, he’s not running yet), but constantly looking back about what he has done in Florida. It wasn’t very exciting. There was nothing memorable said and no quotes to cherry pick out.
There were no stories. Stories are a way that we get to meet the candidate and his family. Those struggles and hardships are cues to what’s personally important to you. These stories help to connect you with other people who have gone through similar things. None of that here.
Delivery-wise, I thought it was just dreadful. The only part that seemed maybe a tiny bit extemporaneous was the beginning, but that was just so flat. When he was talking about the Little League World Series, I actually wasn’t sure if he had played in them or just watched them. If he was excited about playing in the Series, he either has forgotten what that felt like or doesn’t want to share.
He had notes and it seemed like he read from them word for word a bit too often. Jame Humes always suggested speaking from an outline of prompting reminders, so that when you did glance at notes you wouldn’t be tempted to read straight from them. For a speech that I’m sure he’s given a hundred times (literally) it didn’t sound as if he was that familiar in giving it.
I don’t think there was any ice breaking humor in the entire speech. It was April Fool’s Day, he could have had some fun with that, but he didn’t. And he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who has much toleration for April Fool’s humor.
I know that these are minor things but his tone of voice, which you can’t control that much, seemed just a little high and almost whiny at times.
When he woke up on Saturday morning and thought about the 20 things he needed to do that day in order to become president, speaking in Pennsylvania was one of those check box items on the list. But that doesn’t mean that he felt like he wanted to do it. It sure felt like he was checking off a box.
Say what you will about Trump, but there’s always an energy, there’s always a glimmer of him actually wanting to be where ever he is, no matter how briefly. No such energy here.
The box was checked, and DeSantis was off to Massachusetts to give the same speech and check another box.
I’m not sure that he asked anything from the audience.
I’m purely speculating here but if he was on a debate stage with other candidates, DeSantis had that feel that he would be an easy target and would not be much of an attack dog. Trump would make mincemeat out of him. Christie and Sununu might not make mincemeat, but there’s no question they would be able to land some verbal punches.
I know it’s just one speech, but this did not sound like a Godzilla or King Kong. It sounded much more like a guy going down the check list at the back of the “How to Run for President” book.
Although the speech itself was ho-hum and the delivery was less than ho-hum, at least he showed up. (Cue the Woody Allen line about showing up being 90%.) Trump would never bother to speak to such a small group.
A not overly impressive speech I thought, but he did show up… even if he didn’t seem like he wanted to be there.
Your Pennsylvania report…
EJ
Philadelphia
An off day, perhaps?
I don’t think so.
Could he get significantly better?
Maybe, but not likely.
Could this style and the Florida record be enough to win, despite these deficits in normally required areas?
I will leave that up to the voters of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. And Pennsylvania.
Why no great stories about being a teacher, being in the military, serving as a prosecutor?
Hmmmmmmmm…..
What happens if DeSantis is the dog food the dogs won’t eat?
That, my friends, is a tale for another day.
You act like you were just born tonight. Face down in a memory but feeling all right. So, who does your past belong to today? Baby, you don't say nothing when you're feeling this way.
— Rosanne Cash’s “Seven Year Ache”
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TRUMP, THE UNDICTMENT
Expect wall-to-wall live coverage of today’s events, from both broadcast and cable TV.
This truly will be a day like no other, in presidential and media history.
* The motorcade and arrival, per the Washington Post:
For Trump’s protection, the Secret Service expects the former president to enter and exit the building in a way that shields him from public view. Agents could have Trump enter an exterior door by employing the standard tented arrival, but they were leaning toward bringing him into the building through a hidden entrance where he would not be seen from the street. Advance agents who toured the courthouse Friday have identified several secure and subterranean entrances used by judges, sensitive witnesses and some high-profile defendants that they may use for Trump.
* At some point the indictment will be unsealed, leading to a lot of on-camera speed reading by analysts, anchors, and reporters, as well as speed graphic making by PAs and artists.
* The arraignment will provide more awkward coverage, since reports in the courtroom will be precluded from doing any real-time updates, lacking computers or phones, per the judge’s order.
* DA Bragg plans a post-arraignment press conference, which will be dramatic and packed. Bet on no meaningful surprises in the indictment.
* Trump plans to respond in the 8pm ET hour from Mar-a-Lago, although the Wall Street Journal reports, “Advisers expect him to possibly make additional remarks while he is in New York.”
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This evening a private club on East 66th Street will continue a tradition dating to the 1870s with a black-tie dinner.
The honoree will be Hillary Clinton, who lost the presidency to Trump in 2016.
The timing is a coincidence, said John Sussek III, the president of the Lotos Club. The date was chosen around the beginning of the year, long before the grand jury hearing the case against Trump voted on the indictment that brought Trump to Manhattan from Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Florida.
“We have had princes and princesses, senators and congressmen,” Sussek said, noting that one recent honoree was Dr. Anthony Fauci, a leader in the federal response to the pandemic. Another past honoree was Robert Morgenthau, a predecessor of Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, whose office brought the case against Trump….
Lotos gives state dinner honorees lifetime memberships ($4,800 a year for regular resident members). Clinton will also be presented with a small bust of Ginsburg by the sculptor Zenos Frudakis, a Lotos member who did the larger busts of Twain and Ulysses S. Grant at the club.
“You may recall what Donald Trump said in 2016, that if we voted for Hillary Clinton we’d have a criminal president under constant investigation and who would soon be indicted,” Sussek said in the speech he planned to deliver tonight. “And you know what? Trump was right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and ended up with a criminal president under constant investigation and has now just been indicted.”
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TODAY’S BIG ELECTIONS
The fate of abortion access in battleground Wisconsin likely rests with Tuesday’s outcome of the heated race for state Supreme Court, with the future of Republican-drawn legislative maps, voting rights and years of other Republican policies also hanging in the balance.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court has been under conservative control for 15 years, serving as the final word on a wide array of Republican policies enacted by the GOP-controlled Legislature. The court came within one vote of overturning President Joe Biden’s narrow win in 2020.
Democratic-backed candidate Janet Protasiewicz faces Republican-backed Dan Kelly in the race that is the most expensive court race in U.S. history, nearly tripling the previous $15 million record set in Illinois in 2004.
Democrats hope to win the race to wrest conservative control for at least the next two years, including the run-up and aftermath of the 2024 presidential election. Four of the past six presidential elections in Wisconsin have been decided by less than a percentage point and Trump turned to the courts in 2020 in his unsuccessful push to overturn roughly 21,000 votes.
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