Zeitenwende or Zeitenbruch
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I remember antebellum, when a deadly mass shooting in a major U.S. city, or a change in leadership in Hong Kong, or President Biden’s political struggles with the economy, or President Obama’s return to the White House, or the Republican Party’s dilemma over Donald Trump and Trumpism, or Trump’s backing of a Sarah Palin House bid – I remember when any of those would have been showstopping set pieces.
Those are all big, but the war is bigger, of course.
The Washington Post points out that the Germans have taken to using two words to refer to the deep, fast currents rushing all around us:
Zeitenwende — a turning point in history, a watershed moment.
Zeitenbruch -- a rupture in history, the closing of one age and the entry into another marked by even deeper uncertainty and great power rivalry.
We are likely seeing both phenomena occur right before our eyes, but the long-haul implications are just going to be dimly understood for now and will only become clear over many years.
What seems to be occurring presently – right now, this week, today – is the pressure to increase both military aid to Ukraine and tighten sanctions on Russia has gone up enough that stuff could happen soon.
I am not sure exactly why that is happening now — likely some combination of Zelensky’s clever PR campaign; the well-documented atrocities on the ground; and the widespread recognition of the paradoxical, simultaneous realities that Putin is losing the war while he is unable to lose the war.
As one of the first to advocate that the West accept that some version of World War III was going to be required, I find these developments as necessary as they are painful as they are fraught.
In any event, here are your essential reads on what roughly amounts to Phase II of the Coalition of the Willing’s attempt to win by any means necessary (as well as the limits on that intent):
1. The Wall Street Journal ed board and frequent contributor to the op-ed page there, Garry Kasparov, are in the “pay any price, bear any burden” school.
Kasparov:
So who in Washington is calling the shots on Ukraine? If the Biden administration wants Ukraine to win, someone in the White House should say it and do what is necessary to make it possible. If the U.S. is offering deals to Mr. Putin or pressuring Ukraine to accept anything less than sovereignty over 100% of its territory, we should know. Tactical ambiguity can be useful, but a lack of strategic and moral unity and consistency leads to catastrophe.
Mr. Putin’s Russia is a bankrupt gas station run by a mafia that prefers to spend its time and money in London and New York. Offering any carrots to these war criminals would set the stage for a return to the appeasement and corruption that brought us to this deadly phase. It would also shake the foundation of collective defense in the region. As Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks told me last week, “We are afraid not of Russian tanks, but of Western weakness.”
The outcome in Ukraine will define a new world order, for good or ill. Taiwan and China are watching closely. Xi Jinping’s natural alliance with his fellow dictator is looking less attractive after the free world’s outpouring of support for Ukraine. The U.S. can restore its leadership of the free world, or it can lead from behind while democracy continues to lose ground.
The West fell asleep when the Cold War ended. Ukrainians are sacrificing everything to shake President Biden, the White House and the world awake.
2. Max Boot – same school:
The West must continue to ramp up aid to Ukraine, providing it with the kind of heavy combat systems needed to drive back the Russians in the south and east as they have already done in the north. It is good to see the Biden administration getting ready to transfer tanks to Ukraine.
Other weapons, including artillery, fighter aircraft and long-range air defense systems, must follow. The only way to achieve peace at this point is not by negotiating with the Russians but by defeating them.
As for the Europeans: It is time, finally, to stop all oil and gas purchases from Russia. Germany, in particular, cannot continue paying blood money that subsidizes today’s version of the Nazi Einsatzgruppen mobile killing squads. Enough is enough.
3. So if additional military hardware is on the way (how much and when are of course still TBD), what about more sanctions?
Those are soon to be on offer, as well, apparently.
Per the Washington Post:
Biden administration officials have discussed intensifying their sanctions campaign against Russia as evidence emerges of the apparent execution of civilians in a suburb near Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Reports of civilian massacres in Bucha led to swift international condemnation and claims of war crimes from world leaders, as well as pledges to escalate the West’s economic measures against Russia. Ukrainian officials have asked for an investigation by the International Criminal Court into mass graves in Bucha that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called “brutality against civilians we haven’t seen in Europe for decades.”
The scope of the potential U.S. retaliatory measures was not exactly clear, but senior Biden officials have previously discussed potentially devastating “secondary sanctions” that would target countries that continue to trade with Russia….
The Biden administration could also impose sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy that it has not hit so far, including mining, transportation and additional areas of the Russian financial sector. The world continues to buy billions of dollars worth of Russian oil and gas, giving the Kremlin a direct financial lifeline. Officials stressed that planning was preliminary and no decisions had been made about potential responses.
4. The Washington Post has just a fantastic political profile of President Zelensky, with nuggets of reportage and perfect-pitch framing about the challenges he faces.
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